Flip or no flip: California 21st congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Republican David Valadao won by 12.4 percentage points in 2016 and lost by a slim 0.8% percentage point in 2018.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Definitely not Trump country
Trump received 39.7% of the vote in 2016 compared to 43.6 for Romney in 2012 and 46% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 55.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 54.6% for Obama in 2012 and 52% for Obama in 2008.

The only poll, taken 6 weeks before the election, proved to be considerably off the mark.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

Original 10/10/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for David Valadao (R-California)", starts here.

Republican David Valadao won his 3 elections to Congress by an average margin of 14.8 percentage points.  The 21st district includes a large swath of the conservative Central Valley region of California.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid.  The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Open seat.  Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (12/2/2018 election update)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 39th.  (11/30/2018 election update)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (12/1/2018 election update)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (11/9/2018 election update)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (11/28/2018 election update)

David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (11/28/2018 election update)