Wednesday, December 5, 2018

UPDATE. Trump effect terminates Iowa's David Young

(A British newspaper goes a little over the top with this headline.)  Across Trump’s America, the grassroots are growing radical.  (The Guardian, 12/5/2018)

Related reading:
Two Congressmen In Iowa Decide Whether To Embrace Trump.  (Iowa Public Radio, 9/17/2018)

Trump's endorsement proved to be the equivalent of a Mafia kiss of death.  While Rep. Blum is embracing Trump, neighboring Rep. David Young skipped the opportunity to show up with the president at the roundtable in Peosta. He told NPR he was in Washington voting. At the state fair last month, Young didn’t criticize Trump but he wasn’t enthusiastically supporting his trade policies either.

11/11/2018 "Flip or no flip" update starts here.

Flip.  And an impressive one.  David Young won  by 13.7 percentage points in 2018, lost by 1.5 this time around -- a swing of 15 plus change.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

U.S. Rep-elect Cindy Axne, a Democrat, says her election was not about Trump. But some Iowans differ.  (Des Moines Register, 11/8/2018)
Axne has indicated to her swing district that she’ll take a measured approach on Trump. 
“This is about checks and balances on our democracy and then pushing the ideas forward to help Iowans, like health care, schools, money in people’s pockets, better-paying jobs, helping our agriculture sector, those types of things," Axne said. The response shows Axne’s new balancing act. 
The political geography of the 3rd District is a nearly equal mix of registered Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Apparently, only 2 pollsters thought Iowa was worthy of their time.  Unlike the Iowa 1st, the polling was spot-on as far as the spread is concerned.

Original 9/2/2018 post, "Iowa 3rd congressional district is #20 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements", starts here.

Republican David Young is running for a 3rd term.  Democrat Leonard Boswell held the seat from 1997-2012.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Not hardcore Trump county
Trump received 48.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.2% for Romney in 2012 and 46.3% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 45.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 51.4% for Obama in 2012 and 52.4% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Related reading:
IA-03: Five promising signs for Cindy Axne, three for David Young.  (Bleeding Heartland, 7/18/2018)

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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