No flip. Will Hurd wins a third term in Congress. But Gina Ortiz Jones came very close to unseating him, unable to overcome a Libertarian spoiler who siphoned away 2.1% of the votes.
Hurd has yet to win a majority of votes in his 3 congressional elections.
Source: Ballotpedia
Neither the New York Times nor Siena College wants to stake their polling cred on these two misfires. (As a team, they have a knack for not being able to find supporters of challengers.)
Source: Real Clear Politics
Original 4/15/2018 post, "With a candidate like Gina Ortiz Jones, Will Hurd knows Texas's 23rd congressional district is flippable", starts here.
Rep. Will Hurd was first elected to Congress in November 2014.
Will Texas Win the House? Ask Texas. By Frank Bruni. (The New York Times, 4/13/2018)
There’s Gina Ortiz Jones, for example. Jones, 37, is almost certain to be the Democrat challenging Representative Will Hurd in the 23rd District, which sprawls from San Antonio to the outskirts of El Paso. Despite its large numbers of rural voters, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in the 23rd by more than three points. (Clinton lost the state by nine.)
Jones was an Air Force intelligence officer in Iraq. Like Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, she drew the support of the Serve America PAC, which promotes veterans as candidates on the theory that they can help Democrats forge a cultural connection with working-class voters in swing districts.
Trump received 46.4% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.7% for Romney in 2012 and 49% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 49.8% of the vote in 2016 compared to 48.1% for Obama in 2012 and 50% for Obama in 2008.
Source: govtrack
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (4/15/2018)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (9/2/2018)
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