Flip or no flip: Virginia 5th congressional district UPDATE

No flip.  Republican Denver Riggelman defeats Democrat Leslie Cockburn by 6.t4 percenage points.

Source:  Ballotpedia

A New York Times/Siena College polls gets its wrong.  Again.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

Original 9/2/2018 post, "Virginia 5th congressional district is #17 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements", starts here.

The target of two ethics investigations, Republican Tom Garrett resigns earlier this year during his first term in office.

Open seat.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Not hardcore Trump county, but red
Trump received 53.4% of the vote in 2016 compared to 52.5% for Romney in 2012 and 52.2% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 42.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 45.9% for Obama in 2012 and 46.8% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

The Washington Post doesn't agree with the FiveThirtyEight's assessment:

Rep. Garrett’s withdrawal resets Virginia’s 5th Congressional District race — in the GOP’s favor.  (5/29/2018)

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (11/28/2018 election update)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)