In early January, GOP Rep. Ed Royce, first elected to Congress in November 1992, announced he would not run for re-elected. Suddenly, Paul Ryan found some big holes in his Mighty Mouse cape.
In a result not called until 10 days after the election, Democrat Gil Cisneros defeated Republican State Assembly member Young Kim by less than a percentage point.
Monmouth was definitely out to lunch in handicapping this race.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Trump received 42.9% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.8% for Romney in 2012 and 49% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 51.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.1% for Obama in 2012 and 47% for Obama in 2008.
California Republican Rep. Ed Royce won't seek reelection, creating bigger opening for Democrats. (Los Angeles Times, 1/8/2018)
Democrat Gil Cisneros defeats Republican Young Kim, flipping last GOP seat in Orange County. (Los Angeles Times, 11/17/2018)
Original 10/12/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Ed Royce (R-California)", starts here.
Since the redistricting process following the 2010 census, Republican Ed Royce was been safely ensconced in California 39th congressional district, winning his last 3 election by an average margin of nearly 25 percentage points.
Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push. (USA Today, 10/6/2017)
Republicans are afraid, very afraid. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 39th. (11/30/2018 election update)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (11/28/2018 election update)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (11/28/2018 election update)