Flip or no flip: Illinois 12th congressional district UPDATE

No flip.  Paul Ryan saves the day, although Mike Bost's margin of victory shrank by 8 percentage points. 

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Editorial: Did GOP candidates really fight for pre-existing conditions coverage?  (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 10/23/2018)

Lying his way to re-election. Bost’s current congressional website carries the statement: “Since day one in Congress, I have been crystal clear that we must protect individuals with pre-existing conditions from losing coverage.” Yet nothing in his record or on his website supports that claim.

Original 10/15/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Mike Bost (R-Illinois)", starts here.

In 2014, Republican Mike Bost defeated the first-term Democratic incumbent William Enyart by 10.6 percentage points.  His 2016 re-election margin of victory was 14.6 percentage points.  Clearly, the GOP wants to hold this seat, which had been Democratic throughout the 2000s.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid.  The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source: govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)