No flip. Republican John Katko wins a 3rd term in the House, though the Democratic challenger Dana Balter cut his 2016 margin of victory by nearly 15 percentage points.
Siena had trouble finding Balter supporters.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Original 2/12/2018 post, "New York's 24th congressional district is flippable, and John Katko knows it", starts here.
Rep. John Katko was first elected to Congress in November 2014.
Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
In this district tucked along Lake Ontario, Katko is a target because Clinton won her by 4 points and Obama won here in both 2008 and 2012. But Katko, a federal prosecutor, has won handily in the last two elections, and may have caught a break when former Syracuse mayor Stephanie Meyer ruled out a run.Trump received 46.3% of the vote in 2016 compared to 41.1% for Romney in 2012 and 42% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 48.9% of the vote in 2016 compared to 57.0% for Obama in 2012 and 56% for Obama in 2008.
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (4/15/2018)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (9/2/2018)