Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district is #4 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreement

Open seat.  And with such jack-shit crazy gerrymandering, the percentages below should be taken with a fistful of salt as points of comparison.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Trump received 47.6% of the vote in 2016 compared to 45.9% for Romney in 2012 and 42.1% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 48.7 of the vote in 2016 compared to 52.9% for Obama in 2012 and 56.6 for Obama in 2008. 

The award-winning 
("most elevated level of chutzpah")
art of the Pennsylvania gerrymander
(what the district looked like until 2/17/2018)
Source:  govtrack

Thank you Pennsylvania Supreme Court

Other retirements/resignations:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (10/11/2017)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (4/12/2018)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (10/13/2017)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (10/14/2017)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st CD.  (2/12/2018)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th CD.  (2/12/2018)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th CD.  (2/12/2018)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st CD.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th CD.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th CD.  (2/12/2018)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st CD. (2/12/2018)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
West Virginia 3rd.  (4/16/2018)

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