Sunday, December 9, 2018

Flip or no flip: Utah's 4th congressional district

Flip.  There was even a blue wave in Utah, although this district was represented by Democrat Jim Matheson from 2001 to 2013.  Ben McAdams' win over 2-term incumbent Mia Love didn't come out of nowhere.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Definitely not Trump country
Trump received 39.1% of the vote in 2016 compared to 67.2% for Romney in 2012 and 56.1% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 32.4% of the vote in 2016 compared to 30.2% for Obama in 2012 and 40.9% for Obama in 2008.

Related reading:
‘Love gave me no love’: President Trump slams Utah Rep. Mia Love in post-election news conference, says she lost.  (Salt Lake Tribune, 11/7/2018)
Donald, if you cared for anyone other than yourself, you'd clearly see that you're not exactly Mr. Popularity in Utah.  You don't get a lot of love there.  Period.

A lot of in-state polling for this race, Love winning the first six.  But then she lost her momentum.  Two of the final 4 polls resulted in a tie; McAdams won by 0.2 percentage points.

Source govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Open seat.  Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (12/2/2018 election update)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (12/9/2018 election update)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 39th.  (11/30/2018 election update)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (12/1/2018 election update)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (11/9/2018 election update)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (11/28/2018 election update)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (11/28/2018 election update)

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