Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Flip or no flip: Colorado 3rd congressional district UPDATE

No flip, but Scott Tipton wins by his narrowest margin since he flopped onto shore during the Tea Party wave.  I predict a retirement announcement prior to June 2020.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Incumbent Scott Tipton defeats challenger in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, covering much of Western Slope and beyond.  (Denver Post, 11/6/2018)
"Could someone call maintenance, please?  Scott Tipton just vomited all over the carpet."  
“The 3rd District has been my home all of my life, and I’m honored to have earned the opportunity to continue representing Colorado in the United States Congress,” Tipton said in a statement Tuesday evening. “We’ve achieved many positive reforms for the 3rd District, but there is still work to do, and I plan to continue working hard every day during the next two years to improve the lives of every resident in the 3rd District.”

Original 9/1/2018 post, "Colorado's 3rd congressional district is #9 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements", starst here.

The GOP flipped the seat, won by Scott Tipton, in 2010 during the Tea Party wave.  Prior to that, a Democrat had held the seat since 2003.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Trump received 52.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 51.8% for Romney in 2012 and 49.9% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 40.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 45.8% for Obama in 2012 and 47.4% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Related reading:
Diane Mitsch Bush to challenge Scott Tipton in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District.  (Denver Post, 7/6/2017)

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (10/!5/2018)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (4/12/2018)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (10/13/2017)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (10/14/2017)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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