Sunday, November 25, 2018

Flip or no flip: Ohio 1st congressional district UPDATE

No flip.  But Democratic challenger Aftab Pureval shaved 13 percentage points off Steve Chabot's 2016 margin of victory.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Two New York Times/Siena polls underestimated Pureval's support.

Original 2/18/2018 post, "Ohio's 1st congressional district is flippable, and Steve Chabot knows it", starts here.

Rep. Steve Chabot was first elected to Congress in November 1994 His string was broken in 2008 when he lost to Democratic challenger Steve Driehaus, but Chabot regained his seat in the 2010 midterm election.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
In Ohio’s 1st district in southwestern Ohio, longtime Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot drew a challenge in late January from Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval – who had been courted by Democrats after beating another entrenched Republican for his current job. Chabot served 14 years in Congress before getting knocked out of office in a Democratic wave in 2008, then regained the seat two years later. Trump won the district in 2016 by a 6-point margin.

Trump received 51.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 52.4 for Romney in 2012 and 51.8% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 44.6% of the vote in 2016 compared to 46.3% for Obama in 2012 and 47.2% for Obama in 2008. 

The art of the Ohio gerrymander
Source:  govtrack

Other Chabot posts:
Meet the members of the Republican Study Committee.  (7/25/2015)

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

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