Flip or no flip: Florida 26th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Paul Ryan does not save the day, as Carlos Curbelo loses his re-election by 4100 votes.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Trump mocks Miami Republicans who tried to run their own campaigns — and lost.  (Miami Herald, 11/7/2018)

The president, who spent the final stages of the campaign demonizing immigrants, couldn’t bother to pronounce Carlos Curbelo’s name correctly 14 hours after the Cuban-American lawmaker, who voted to repeal Obamacare and helped draft a tax bill that was Trump’s signature legislative achievement, paid for it at the ballot box.

Trump received 40.6% of the vote in 2016 compared to 43.9% for Romney in 2012 and 47.9% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 56.8% of the vote in 2016 compared to 55.4% for Obama in 2012 and 51.9% for Obama in 2008. 


Original 10/14/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Carlos Curbelo (R-Florida)", starts here.

In 2014, Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated the first-term Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia by 3 percentage points.  The same two names appeared on the 2016 ballot along with an independent candidate, Jose Peixoto, who appears to have siphoned votes away from Garcia.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid.  The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source: govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (10/14/2017)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)