Flip or no flip: Iowa's 1st congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Blum is toast.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Abby Finkenauer's pro-union message resonates Iowa's 1st District, turning eastern Iowa blue.  (Des Moines Register, 11/7/2018)

Finkenauer joins Cindy Axne, the winner in the 3rd Congressional District, to be the first women from Iowa to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. At 29, Finkenauer is also one of the youngest people ever voted into Congress. 

The polling data had Finkenauer winning in a romp.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

In my mind, most of a slew of New York Times/Siena polls results released this fall seemed to be outliers.


10/25/2018 update, "Iowa CD1 UPDATE:  Dear Des Moines Register, Rod Blum is toast and he knows it", starts here.

Sources:  (top) Des Moines Register, 10/24/2018

(bottom) Real Clear Politics

Details on New York Times/Siena poll found here.


Original 2/12/2018 post, "Iowa's 1st congressional district is flippable, and Rod Blum knows it", starts here.

Freedom Caucus crazy Rod Blum is serving his second term.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)

In the 1st district seat in Iowa, represented by two-term U.S. Rep. Rod Blum, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed dismal approval ratings for Trump and a 47%-29% edge for a generic Democrat. Four Democrats – including state Rep. Abby Finkenauer and former Labor Department official Thomas Heckroth – make up a potentially strong slate of challengers for Blum.

Trump received 48.7% of the vote in 2016 compared to 42.5% for Romney in 2012 and 40.4% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 45.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 56.2% for Obama in 2012 and 58.5% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

Other Blum posts:
Donald Trump declares war on Freedom Caucus.  (3/30/2017)
The Freedom Caucus, Congress' crybabies (part 8).  (12/21/2015)
Meet 'the crazies' in the U.S. House of Representatives.  (10/4/2015)
Meet the members of the U S. House of Representatives Freedom Caucus.  (9/28/2015)