Saturday, November 12, 2022

GET ME REWRITE: Tennessee GOP fight crime and inflation with bill to ban drag performances in public spaces

Republicans gone wild in Cancel Culture World!

Top headline:  NBC, 10/18/2022
Bottom headlineThe Hill, 11/10/2022
Johnson’s bill would amend a state law preventing adult-oriented businesses like strip clubs from operating within 1,000 feet of schools, public parks or places of worship to include “adult cabaret performances,”including those of exotic dancers and male or female impersonators.”
Not included in bill language:  dressing up in your wife's clothes while she's out shopping.

Gearing up elsewhere:

2022 election results in Wisconsin's race for Governor: Ozaukee County

Sources:  2018, 2022  

Ozaukee County -- the "O" in "WOW" (Waukesha/Ozaukee/ Washington), is red, but not as much as it used to be. 

Let's take a look at the numbers.

In the 2018 gubernatorial election, Scott Walker received 32,069 votes, 62.7% of the total. 

In 2022, Tim Michels received 28,826 votes, 10% fewer than Walker.

Meanwhile, Tony Evers improved on his vote totals -- from 18,394 (35.9%) to 23,103 (44.2%). That's an increase of 26% and 8.3 percentage points. 

Look as though Ozaukee County is turning purple.

Think this is a fluke?  

Take a look here at Ozaukee County's trend in recent presidential elections.

GET ME REWRITE: Tennessee GOP fight crime and inflation by attacking transsexual health care


Top headline:  NBC, 10/18/2022
Bottom headlineMetro Weekly, 11/11/21022
The bill, titled the “Protecting Children from Gender Mutilation Act,” was introduced on Wednesday by Tennessee Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson and House Majority Leader William Lamberth in their respective chambers. 
Under the proposed measure, health care providers would be barred from providing treatments “performed for the purpose of enabling a minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity inconsistent with the minor’s sex, or treating purported discomfort or distress from a discordance between the minor’s sex and asserted identity.”
In laymen’s terms, that means that any transition-related medications or procedures, including puberty blockers, hormone therapy, or gender confirmation surgery, would be off-limits to minor patients struggling with gender dysphoria.

Gearing up elsewhere:

Mike Pence, your order of crow is ready

Top headline: WWMT
Bottom headlineMichigan Advance
Democrats in Michigan have made history for the first time in four decades by taking back control of both chambers of the state Legislature. Voters also reelected the entire Democratic ticket for governor, attorney general and secretary of state — who beat a slate of Republicans who repeatedly denied the results of the 2020 election former President Donald Trump lost to President Joe Biden. [emphasis added]

Why did the election go wrong for the GOP? Bad message? Bad candidates? Donald Trump? How about 'all of the above'?

HeadlineNew York Times, 11/11/2022
“As a party, we found ourselves consistently navigating the power struggle between Trump and anti-Trump factions of the party, mostly within the donor class,” Paul Cordes, the Michigan Republican Party’s chief of staff, wrote in a memo on Thursday. 
He continued: “That power struggle ended with too many people on the sidelines and hurt Republicans in key races. At the end of the day, high-quality, substantive candidates and well-funded campaigns are still critical to winning elections. We struggled in both regards to the detriment of Michiganders across the state.”

Fasten your seat belt, Paul. It's going to be a long and bumpy night of terror with Trump in a constantly aggrieved state.

GET ME REWRITE: Homophobic voters in Michigan town give master class in how to cut off your nose to spite your face

Headline: Detroit Pree Press, 11/10/2022
A tax levy to fund the Patmos Library for the next 10 years failed in Jamestown Charter Township's August primary, meaning it lost 84% of its funding for operations. 
The measure appeared on Tuesday's midterms ballot again in hopes that, with more residents aware of the issue, it would pass. It failed, again. Just 5,500 residents out of around 10,000 in the township just southwest of Grand Rapids voted on the millage, and 55.8% voted "no." Without taxpayer funds, the library will close. Exactly when that will happen is not yet known.
It will come as no surprise that Ottawa County, where Jamestown Charter Township is located, voter overwhelmingly for the crackpot, Trump-endorsed GOP candidate for governor Tudor Dixon.  65.1%.  Gretchen won the election with 54.6 % of the vote.  

Related post:
Dear Jamestown Charter Township Michigan residents, A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone. Best, Retiring Guy.  (8/25/2022)

GET ME REWRITE: 2022 midterm elections reveal further evidence of brain drain in Iowa

Top headline:  Cedar Rapids Gazette, 9/22/2022
Bottom headlineDes Moines Register, 11/11/2022
Reynolds claimed a decisive win, even as Democrats in numerous other states made gains in governors’ races. U.S. Sen Chuck Grassley won reelection by double digits. Republicans held three congressional seats and flipped a fourth. They bounced Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, two Democrats who hold the record as the nation's longest-serving politicians in those roles. And Republicans grew their already substantial majorities in the Legislature.

A bloodbath, in other words! 

Related posts:
What's the matter with Iowa? Health benefit plans mean you're screwed when it comes to pre-existing conditions.  (10/5/2018)

Going to extremes: From Florence County to Dane County, where Tim Michels received the most and least votes

Map templateCloud Smart Draw
Election resultsMilwaukee Journal Sentinel

Related post:
Dane County Wisconsin 2022 elections: Percentage of townships' vote for Democrat Tony Evers.  (11/9/2022)
Greetings from the Town of Dane, a conservative bastion in liberal Dane County.  (11/9/2022)

Before we close the book on Wisconsin loser Tim Michels, let's replay his silliest and scariest campaign statement


Washington Post, 11/11/2022
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) won reelection Tuesday by 3.4 points. That’s a landslide in a state where four of the past six presidential contests were decided by less than one point and the first time since 1990 that a Badger State governor was reelected from the same party that controlled the White House. For a Democrat, it’s the first time since 1962. [emphasis added]

A trip down memory lane:
November 2022
Multimillionaire GOP candidate for Wisconsin governor Tim Michels is fine and dandy with shredding environmental protections.  (11/3/2022)

October 2022
Tim Michels gears up to fight crime and inflation with plan to sign GOP voter suppression bills.  (10/23)
Multimillionaire GOP candidate for Wisconsin Tim Michels sez if elected he'll punish the unemployed.  (10/21)
Just like Donald Trump, Tim Michels is in it to enrich himself.  (10/11)
Anti-abortion fanatic and GOP candidate for governor Tim Michels addresses small group of white people in Eau Claire.  (10/11)

September 2022
Gullible's Travels: Tim Michaels Clown Show has a bridge for sale.  (9/24)

August 2022

Jack Kraushaar of red tsunami fame, your order of crow is ready

Top headline and graphicAxios
Bottom headline:  New York Times

Welcome to the echo chamber!
The big picture: Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers. In the Senate, Republican officials are now bullish they'll gain at least the one seat necessary to regain the majority. 
Why it matters: The national political environment shapes the trajectory of all the battleground races, meaning a big enough wave could touch some of the bluest districts.

Jack is sharing a table.

Friday, November 11, 2022

GET ME REWRITE: Eggheads weigh in on what motivates voters in midterm elections

Top headlineThe Conversation
Bottom headlineNew York Times
More recent evidence, however, suggests that voter concern over inflation may trump abortion as a motivating issue. We are a multi-university team of social scientists that has been regularly polling Americans in all 50 states since April 2020. 
Four times over the past six months we surveyed 22,000 to 27,000 Americans – in March and April, June and July, August and September, and then in more detail in October 2022 – to explore the likely effects of abortion politics on voter attitudes and behavior. 
Following the Dobbs decision, we found no clear evidence of a change in Americans’ preferences for which party should control the House and Senate after the election. We conducted this research using generic ballots – polls that ask people about their political party preference, but not specifically about which candidate they support.

There is so much hedging in this article that you need this
to get through it.

Dana Hall McCain, your order of crow is ready

Bottom headline:  New York Times

What Dana wrote:
The problem the Democrats have is that there were too many months in between the historic SCOTUS decision and election day. And in those months, voters have been forced to participate repeatedly in exercises like buying groceries and filling their gas tanks to get to work each day. It has become almost unbearably painful for many families to make ends meet. 
Additionally, Americans of all ages have watched their retirement account balances plummet in the last year. It’s disheartening to young workers to see prior gains evaporate into thin air and terrifying for those who hope to retire soon.

Dana is sharing a table.

When it comes to the GOP attacking Black candidates, it's deja vu all over again

ScreenshotsRolling Stone, People

Related posts:Alabama Political Reporter shines a light on the myth of the scary black man.  (10/12/2022)

Keeping tabs on authors in LINKcat: Rebecca Godfrey


Source LINKcat

New York Times, 11/4/2022
The book ["The Torn Skirt"], nearly a decade in the making, was published in 2005 and drew comparisons to Truman Capote’s “In Cold Blood.” 
It was reissued in 2019 with an introduction by Mary Gaitskill, a longtime friend of Ms. Godfrey’s and the author of the acclaimed short-story collection “Bad Behavior” (1988). Ms. Gaitskill called “Under the Bridge” “a remarkable piece of investigative journalism,” adding that Ms. Godfrey “allows us to almost see what is essentially unseeable.”

The 50 member libraries of LINKcat

Related posts:
Roger Angell.  (5/24)
Melissa Bank.  (8/7)
Raymond Briggs.  (8/20)
Bruce Duffy,  (3/13)
Todd Gitlin.  (2/8)
Doris Grumbach.  (11/10)
Ron Goulart.  (2/7)
Robert Hicks.  (3/8)
Maureen Howard.  (3/19)
Hilary Mantel.  (9/26)
Nancy Mitford.  (4/4)
P. J. O'Rourke.  (2/24)
Julie Powell.  (11/5)
Dennis Smith.  (1/27)
Susie Steiner.  (7/27)
Larry Woiwode.  (5/19)

F. Lee Bailey.  (6/11)
Kim Chernin.  (1/10)
Angelo Codevilla.  (10/10)
Stephen Dunn.  (6/29)
James R. Flynn.  (1/30)
Larry Flynt.  (2/12)
Lucinda Franks.  (5/11)
Joseph Galloway.  (8/25)
Norman Golb.  (2/22)
Charles Grodin.  (5/20)
Maria Guarnascheilli, book editor.  (2/18)
James Gunn.  (2/21)
Tony Hendra.  (3/7)
Donald Kagan.  (8/20)
Hans Kung.  (4/9)
Lyn Macdonald.  (5/15)
Janet Malcolm.  (6/18)
Peter Manso,  (4/10)
Ved Mehta.  (1/12)
Marie Mongan.  (3/22)
Deborah Rhode.  (1/28)
James Ridgeway.  (2/16)
David Swensen.  (5/13)
Bryan Sykes.  (1/14)
Athan Theoharis.  (6/14/)
Ed Ward.  (5/16)
Michael Thomas.  (8/19)
Adam Zagajewski.  (3/27)

Ben Bova.  (12/17)
Clive Cussler.  (2/29)
Betty Dodson  (11/11)
Pete Hamill.  (8/6)
Shere Hite. (9/13)
A, E, Hotchner.  (2/18)
Roger Kahn.  (2/15)
Randall Kenan.  (9/29)
John Le Carre. (12/23/2020)
Johanna Lindsey.  (1/15)
Barry Lopez.  (12/29)
Alison Lurie.  (12/7)
Charlers Portis.  (2/19)
Julia Reed.  (9/8)
John Rothchild.  (1/22)
Gail Sheehy.  (9/3)
Jill Paton Walsh.  (11/29)
Charles Webb.  (6/30)

Warren Adler.  (4/23)
Kate Braverman.  (10/28)
Stephen Dixon.  (11/12)
Dan Jenkins.  (3/10)
Judith Krantz.  (6/27)
Paule Marshall.  (8/27)
Martin Mayer.  (8/3)
Wright Morris.  (7/25)
Toni Morrison.  (8/12)
Anthony Price.  (6/17)
John Simon.  (12/1)
Sol Stein.  (9/30)
Brad Watson.  (8/2)
Lonnie Wheeler.  (7/15)
Herman Wouk.  (5/20)

Neal Thompson.  (6/17)

Kit Reed.  (10/1)

E. M. Nathanson.  (4/10)




GET ME REWRITE: Robin Vos draws a line between himself and Donald Trump

HeadlineMilwaukee Journal Sentinel, 11/10/2022
Vos also called for Republicans to move on from former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Republican candidate for governor Tim Michels and has been tied to lackluster election performances for Republicans in a year that should have produced a GOP sweep. 
"Some of the toxicity of Donald Trump, and the persona that he has made for the Republican Party, has turned off educated people," Vos said in a Thursday interview with conservative radio show host Jay Weber on WISN-AM.
We'll see what Trump has to say about this.

Related series:

Waunakee group opposing school referenda has 124 followers on its Facebook page

And not much clout, as it turns out.  (The Waunakee Community School District as 4,304 students and 337 FTE teachers.)

Both referenda passed, the borrowing one by 652 votes, operations by a sizable 2,496-vote margin.

Referenda results Dane County Clerk

Memo to Derrick Van Orden: A truly great library contains something to offend everyone

Thank you voters of Wisconsin's 3rd CD for electing a homophobic bully of a clown to Congress.

Election resultsBallotpedia
HeadlineMilwaukie Journal Sentinel, 8/24/2021

From the Journal Sentinel:
Kerrigan Trautsch, a page at the Prairie du Chien Memorial Library, told the La Crosse Tribune that Derrick Van Orden came into the library on June 17 and complained loudly about a display of fiction and nonfiction books about homosexuality in the children’s section. The display was part of the library’s efforts to recognize Pride Month. 
Trautsch, who was 17 at the time, describes herself as an advocate for the LGBTQ community. She said Van Orden was angry, and that he said the books offended him and that taxpayers shouldn’t have to see them. [emphasis added]

And a special thanks to the bozos at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for sitting this one out.  Heckuva job, Sean!

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not invest any money in Pfaff, and Pfaff was not on the committee's "Red to Blue" list, which puts a focus, along with extra resources, on the party's key races.

With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Washington edition)

A nailbiter?  Hardly.

Sources:   New York Times, Slate

So, yeah, he called the race correctly, but......

Trafalgar had Murray up by just 1.2 percentage points.  She won the election by 12.6 percentage points.  (That's with 70% of the vote counted, but numbers have remained steady as new tallies are added.  And there are still lots of votes to be counted in King and Pierce counties, Washington's most populous.)

Moore Information Group, however, gets the prize for the worst WA Senate poll.

They get a B/C rating from FiveThirtyEight.

Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)
Poll ratingFiveThirtyEight (green box added)

Other Trafalgar clown show visits:
Michigan.  (11/11/2022)
Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Michigan edition)

Not a 'razor-thin' margin of victory for Gretchen Whitner.  As it turns out, she easily dispatched of her opponent.  Michigan, in fact, experienced a blue wave.

So, yeah, he called the race correctly, but......

Trafalgar had Whitmer up by a mere 0.3 percentage points.  She won the election by 10.6 percentage points.

The primary purpose of this poll was to generate headlines such as these.
Headline links found here

Mission accomplished!

Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)
Poll ratingFiveThirtyEight (green box added)

Other Trafalgar clown show visits:
Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Vermont edition)

Sources:   New York Times, Twitter

So, yeah, he called the race correctly, but......

Trafalgar had Welch up by just 6.5 percentage points.  He won the election by crushing 40.4 percentage points.

What's the 'squishy factor in determining a pollster rating?

Screenshot and headlineSlate, 1/10/2022 (screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)
Poll rating: FiveThirtyEight (green box added)

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Shane Goldmacher, your order of crow is ready

Top headline and sub:  New York Times, 10/25/2022
Bottom headline and sub:  Slate, 11/10/2022

Not just Republicans.  Democrats and, worst of all, reporters, too.  Whole lotta snookering going on.

From Slate:
What's going on here? Well, Trafalgar founder Robert Cahaly is a longtime Republican operative (one who, as you can see from the TV screenshot above, lends himself an air of intellectual authority by wearing a bow tie). Many Republicans believe that independent polling operations are among the mainstream institutions biased against conservatives. During the 2012 presidential election, that feeling gave rise to a concept called “unskewing the polls,” which were said to be understating support for Mitt Romney. 
They weren’t—Romney lost, and most polls actually overestimated his support—but during the next presidential cycle, Cahaly’s operation began putting out its first polls, which consistently suggested Donald Trump had a very good chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Most other polls did not say this, and when Trump won, Cahaly became a polling celebrity. 
In 2020, Trafalgar’s polls said the same thing—that Trump was going to win. Of course, Trump did not win, but Tralfagar retained much of its influence, including among mainstream reporters. This was partly because Nate Silver’s site FiveThirtyEight continued to give the group an A-minus rating for its overall accuracy despite some concerns about its transparency. (Many other polls in 2020 were off in the other direction, i.e., overestimating support for Joe Biden.) Cahaly’s outlier optimism about Republican chances continued unabated this cycle, and was arguably instrumental in creating the narrative of a rising red wave that never materialized. (Presumably, that A-minus is about to drop).

Paging Lisa Lerer, Elizabeth Dias, your orders of crow are ready

What happens when reporters spend too much skimming the toplines of disingenuous polls and transcribing the grievances of drooling Trumpers in rural coffee shops.

Top headline and subNew York Times
Bottom headline and sub:  Politico

Plenty of crow to go around.
Plates of crow to go for Bloomberg editors. (11/10/2022