Friday, November 9, 2018

Flip or no flip: Florida 18th congressional district UPDATE

No flip.  Paul Ryan saves the day.  Brian Mast increased his margin of victory by whopping 0.7 percentage points.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

'With friends like this, I could get myself unelectted', by Carl Hiaasen.  (Miami Herald, 5/19/2017) 
Not angry enough, I guess.   At first the commercial appears to be a prank hatched by Democrats in order to rattle Mast, a Republican newly elected to the U.S. House. He is a vocal opponent of Obamacare and did side with Trump factions in the narrow 215-213 passage of a replacement bill. Back home, however, Mast has been facing acid criticism at town hall meetings, which he prefers to call “constituent conversations.” Many of his constituents are angry about the House healthcare plan, which would raise insurance premiums drastically for many Americans over 50.

Trump received 53.3% of the vote in 2016 compared to 51.4% for Romney in 2012 and 47.9% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 44.1% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.7% for Obama in 2012 and 51.2% for Obama in 2008. 

Original 10/13/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Brian Mast (R-Florida)", starts here.

After redistricting based on the 2010 census, Patrick Murphy represented Florida's 18th congressional district for 2 terms. In 2016, he chose to run for the U.S. Senate against Marco Rubio.  He lost.  Maybe he'll try to win his old House seat back.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)
Republicans are afraid, very afraidThe Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (10/13/2017)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (10/14/2017)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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