Flip or no flip: Colorado 6th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Coffman lost by nearly 10 percentage point.  Smart move by GOP to save its money here.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Jason Crow unseats incumbent Mike Coffman in Colorado’s 6th Congressional District.  (Denver Post, 11/8/2018)

The Trump effect dooms Coffman.   Coffman has been called “bullet proof” and the “Harry Houdini of Colorado elections” for his ability to split ballots and hang on to Colorado’s 6th Congressional District as it grew bluer and more diverse. But national politics and President Donald Trump proved insurmountable Tuesday night, and he conceded about an hour after polls closed.

Original 10/15/2018 post, "GOP throws in the towel in the Colorado 6th congressional district", starts here.

Republicans Abandon Vulnerable Lawmakers, Striving to Keep House.  (The New York Times, 10/11/2018)

In a tactical retreat, Republican groups have already withdrawn some or all funding from a few embattled incumbents, mainly in suburbs where President Trump is unpopular, including Representatives Kevin Yoder of Kansas, Mike Coffman of Colorado and Mike Bishop of Michigan. They have abandoned more than half a dozen seats where Republican lawmakers are not running for re-election. On Wednesday they cut loose the Tucson, Ariz.-based seat of Representative Martha McSally, who left to run for Senate.

Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colorado) was first elected to Congress in November 2008.

Source:  Ballotpedia

So far, the only poll for this race was conducted by The New York Times/Siena College (9/12-14) and gives the Democratic challenger Jason Crow at 51%-40% advantage.

Definitely not Trump country.
Trump received 41.3% of the vote in 2016 compared to 46.5% for Romney in 2012 and 44.9% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 50.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 53.1% for Obama in 2012 and 53.6% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (4/12/2018)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (10/13/2017)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (10/14/2017)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)