Thursday, November 8, 2018

Flip or no flip: Florida 15th congressional district UPDATE

No flip, but the Democrats are making inroads.

(2010 not included due to redistricting.)

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

U.S. House District 15 results: Ross Spano defeats Democratic challenger Kristen Carlson.  (Tampa Bay Times, 11/8/2018)
The conservative Republican was the early favorite to win the district, which went to President Donald Trump by a margin of 10 points during the 2016 election. 
GOP candidates have maintained a stronghold on the district since Republican Dave Weldon's 1995 election, but pollsters expected a tough fight between Spano and Carlson, 64, a Lakeland attorney. The respected Cook Political Report shifted the district's rating from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up" just days before the election

Original 4/12/2018 post, "Dennis Ross, representing Florida's 15th congressional district, announces his retirement on the same day as Paul Ryan", starts here.

Rep. Dennis Ross was first elected to Congress in November 2010.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Republican US Rep. Ross won't seek 5th term.  (Miami Herald, 4/11/2018)
He said in a press release that he never saw serving in Congress as a career and he now intends to pursue opportunities to increase civic education for youth and to encourage more participating in government.

Trump received 53.1% of the vote in 2016 compared to 52.2% for Romney in 2012 and 52.1% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 43.1% of the vote in 2016 compared to 46.6% for Obama in 2012 and 46.7% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (10/13/2017)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (10/14/2017)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

No comments: