Friday, October 9, 2026

Wisconsin 2026 elections: Democrat Robyn Vining and Republican Mike Roberts vie for open seat in 5th Senate District

 
Prior to redistricting, the three Assembly districts that comprise 5rd Senate District straddled Waukesha and Milwaukee counties, diluting the Democratic vote in western Milwaukee County in the process

Redistricting eliminated the GOP gerrymandered triple-decker cracking.
 
Maps:  Wisconsin Blue Book
Election results:  Ballotpedia
 
GOP freshman State Senator Rob Hutton chose not to run for re-election.  He previously had served 3 terms in the Assembly.

Democratic candidate Robyn Vining has represented the 13th Assembly District since January 2019.

Republican candidate Mike Roberts is a healthcare professional and small business owner with no previous political experience.

Based on the election results since 2010, one might conclude that Roberts has a slight advantage.  However, Rob Hutton's 5.5 percentage point advantage is likely to evaporate in a district where Trump was never fully embraced in the first place.


The 2026 primary results indicate that Robyn Vining should easily flip this district for Democrats.  Both candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries on August 11th.  Vining received 23,924 votes out of 24.011 cast while Roberts received 11,973 votes out of 11,996 cast.




Related reading:
Wisconsin Applied Population Lab, 6/18/2018

Malia Jones explains:
Two core concepts of gerrymandering were central to the arguments presented to the high court: cracking and packing. A third process, known as stacking, also crops up in gerrymandered political maps, but was not the focus of Gill v. Whitford.
Cracking and packing both refer to specific ways of drawing legislative boundaries with the outcomes of elections in mind. These two processes operate in tension with one another, but both can be implemented by a party in power seeking to maximize its electoral chances through gerrymandering. 
Packing refers to the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party. 
Cracking involves drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive. [emphasis added]

Other Wisconsin 2026 election posts:
1st Assembly District.  (6/11/2026)
2nd Assembly District.  (6/14/2026)
3rd Assembly District.  (6/15/2026)
4th Assembly District.  (6/17/2026)
5th Assembly District.  (6/18/2026)
6th Assembly District.  (6/20/2026)
7th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
8th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
9th Assembly District.  (6/22/2026)
10th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)

11th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)
12th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
13th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
14th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
15th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
16th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
17th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
18th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
24th Assembly District.  (4/19/2026)
26th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
29th Assembly District.  (7/10/2026)

30th Assembly District.  (7/11/2026)
31st Assembly District.  (7/12/2026)
33rd Assembly District.  (7/15/2026)
34th Assembly District.  (4/24/2026)
35th Assembly District.  (4/15/2026)
36th Assembly District.  (7.16.2026)
37th Assembly District.  (4/20/2026)
39th Assembly District.  (7/18/2026)

40th Assembly District.  (7/19/2026)
41st Assembly District.  (7/20/2026)
42nd Assembly District.  (7/21/2026)
45th Assembly District.  (7/23/2026)
46th Assembly District.  (7/24/2026)
47th Assembly District.  (7/25/2026)
48th Assembly District.  (7/27/2026) 
49th Assembly District.  (7/28/2026)

50th Assembly District.  (7/29/2026)
51st Assembly District.  (7/30/2026)
52nd Assembly District.  (7/31/2026)
58th Assembly District.  (4/12/2026)
59th Assembly District.  (4/10/2026)

61st Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
62th Assembly District.  (8/11/2026)
63rd Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
64th Assembly District.  (8/17/2026)
65th Assembly District.  (8/18/2026)
67th Assembly District.  (8/24/2026)
68th Assembly District.  (8/25/2026)
69th Assembly District.  (8/26/2026)

70th Assembly District.  (8/27/2026)
72nd Assembly District.  (8/29/2026)
73rd Assembly District.  (8/31/2026)
78th Assembly District.  (9/14/2026)
79th Assembly District.  (9/15/2026)

80th Assembly District.  (9/16/2026)
81st Assembly District.  (9/17/2026)
83rd Assembly District.  (9/20/2026)
84th Assembly District.  (9/21/2026)
85th Assembly District.  (9/22/2026)
86th Assembly District.  (9/23/2026)
87th Assembly District.  (9/24/2026)
88th Assembly District.  (9/25/2026)

90th Assembly District.  (9/27/2026)
91st Assembly District.  (9/28/2026)
92nd Assembly District.  (9/29/2026)
93rd Assembly District.  (9/30/2026) 
94th Assembly District.  (10/1/2026)
96th Assembly District.  (10/3/2026)
97th Assembly District.  (10/4/2026)
98th Assembly District.  (10/5/2026)
99th Assembly District.  (10/6/2026)

1st Senate District.  (10/7/2026)
3rd Senate District.  (10/8/2026)
17th Senate District.  (4/14/2026)
23rd Senate District.  (4/15/2026)
31st Senate District.  (4/15/2026)

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Ohio congressional district that Trump won by 10 percentage points is now up for grabs

 
Election results and map:  Ballotpedia
Headline:  The Downballot, 10/8/2026

David Nir and Jeff Singer report:
In central Ohio, Your Community, HMP, and other groups have spent a total of just over $1 million since September aimed at defeating Republican Rep. Mike Carey in the 15th District. Conservative groups, led by the campaign arm of the Republican Main Street Partnership, have deployed roughly $700,000 to help Carey against Democrat Don Leonard. 
Leonard, an Ohio State University professor who is seeking office for the first time, is trying to flip a constituency that would have backed Trump 55-45 in 2024. But Trump’s weak approval ratings give Democrats the chance to reassert themselves in what used to be one of the nation’s premier swing states, and Leonard’s allies say he has the chance to be part of this breakthrough. Last month, HMP released a survey giving him a 46-45 edge. Carey’s district, like Finstad’s, was competitive turf during the early 21st century, but GOP gerrymandering took it out of play well before Trump’s rise.

We have to settle for an apples-to-oranges comparison here.  Although more Democratic voted in the District 15 primaries, incumbent Republican Mike Carey ran unopposed.   The primaries were held on May 5th, and a lot of shit has flowed through the Trump sewer since then.



A blatantly gerrymandered district that cracks the Columbus metro area, the bluest in the state.




Related posts:
August-October 2026

February-April 2026
Florida special election: House seat that includes Mar-a-Lago is up for grabs.  (2/18)


January-April 2025

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After a big GOP win in 2024, Minnesota CD1 is up for grab thanks to Trump's tanking approval rating

 
Election results and map:  Ballotpedia
Headline:  The Downballot, 10/8/2026

David Nir and Jeff Singer report:
Finstad, though, rebounded quickly from his near miss. He won a rematch against Ettinger 54-42 that fall, and he easily secured his second full term in 2024 following a race that both parties—this time correctly—viewed as uncompetitive. Upgrade to support The Downballot Democratic groups, however, are taking a much closer interest in Johnson, a public school math teacher. 
While the House Majority PAC, the top pro-Democratic super PAC in House campaigns, hasn’t begun spending here, it released a poll late last month showing Johnson with a narrow 47-46 advantage over Finstad. (No other recent surveys have been made public of this contest.) 
But Your Community PAC, an affiliate of the deep-pocketed Sixteen Thirty Fund, is picking up the slack—and Finstad isn’t the only once-secure Republican it’s going after.

Both candidates won competitive primaries, but the GOP won the total vote tally by 2,436.  But that was two months ago.



Minnesota CD 1 covers the southern part of the state.





Related posts:
2026
Florida special election: House seat that includes Mar-a-Lago is up for grabs.  (2/18)


January-April 2025

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