Flipping the House and flipping off Trump: Democrat Katy Padilla Stout defeats Republican Brandon Herrera in Texas 23rd congressional district (open seat)

 

Accused of sexual misconduct and facing an expulsion vote, Republican Tony Gonzales chose to resign in April 2026.  The seat has remained vacant since then.

 

And what a flip Padilla-Stout pulled off -- from a 25-point Democratic deficit to a 8-point Democratic advantage.

Election results:  Ballotpedia, New York Times

Headline:  The Texas Tribune, 11/4/2026

Ayden Runnels reports:

It was one of several victories in a historic night for Texas Democrats. Two Democratic representatives, Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, held seats that were redistricted to favor Republicans. By late Tuesday night, Republicans had conceded three of the five seats their new congressional map was designed to flip. 

The 23rd Congressional District, left largely untouched by the mid-decade redistricting efforts, voted for President Donald Trump by a 15-point margin in 2024. 

Padilla Stout’s victory is the first time a Democrat has won the West Texas seat since 2012, when former Rep. Pete Gallego won the seat back from Republicans before subsequently losing his reelection bid.

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Iowa 2nd.  (11/4/2026)

Iowa 3rd.  (11/4/2026)

Kentucky 6th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 4th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 7th.  (11/4/2026)

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Montana 1st.  (11/6/2026)

New Jersey 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 1st.  (11/4/2026)

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Pennsylvania 8th.  (11/4/2026)

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Flipping the House and flipping off Trump: Democrat Fred Wellman defeats 3-term Republican incumbent 7-term Ann Wagner in Missouri 2nd congressional district

From a 12-point Democratic deficit to a 5-point Democratic advantage.

Election results:  Ballotpedia, New York Times

Headline:  Missouri Independent, 11/3/2026

Rudi Keller reports:

Republican lawmakers redrew Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District to make U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner’s seat safer. On Tuesday, Democrat Fred Wellman won it anyway. 

Wellman, a retired military officer, was outspent by Wagner and her Republican allies. But he outraised her in the crucial final months of the campaign, making increasingly large ad buys as the election approached. 

Wellman won his victory in St. Louis County, where he defeated Wagner by 14%. That was enough to cover Wagner’s majorities in Franklin, Warren and St. Charles counties, where Wellman cut deeply into Wagner’s margins from 2024. 

In St. Charles County, where Wagner won by 16,000 votes in 2024, Wellman narrowed the margin to 4,000 votes. Overall, Wellman took 51.4% of the vote.

Related posts:

Indiana 5th.  (11/5/2026)

Iowa 1st.  (11/4/2026)

Iowa 2nd.  (11/4/2026)

Iowa 3rd.  (11/4/2026)

Kentucky 6th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 4th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 10th.  (11/4/2026)

Montana 1st.  (11/6/2026)

New Jersey 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 1st.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 8th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 10th.  (11/4/2026)

Wisconsin 1st.  (11/4/2026)

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Flipping the House and flipping off Trump: Democrat J.D. Ford defeats 3-term Republican incumbent Victoria Spartz in Indiana 5th congressional district

Election results:  Ballotpedia, New York Times

Headline:  Indiana Capital Chronicle, 11/3/2026

Casey Smith reports:

Hoosier Democrat J.D. Ford won a major political upset Tuesday night, unseating three-term Republican U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District and flipping a seat the GOP had held for years. 

Ford, a two-term state senator from Indianapolis, defeated Spartz in a closely watched contest that became one of Indiana’s most competitive congressional races as Democrats sought to gain ground in the U.S. House. 

The Associated Press called the race for Ford early Wednesday. With nearly all votes counted, Ford had received about 51.7% of the vote to Spartz’s 48.3%, according to AP results.

The victory marks a notable political shift in a district that stretches from Indianapolis’ northern suburbs into north-central Indiana, including Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie and Marion. 

It also ends Spartz’s six-year tenure in Congress and sends Ford, Indiana’s first openly gay state legislator, to Washington after eight years in the Indiana Senate.

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Iowa 2nd.  (11/4/2026)

Iowa 3rd.  (11/4/2026)

Kentucky 6th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 4th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Michigan 10th.  (11/4/2026)

Montana 1st.  (11/6/2026)

New Jersey 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 1st.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 7th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 8th.  (11/4/2026)

Pennsylvania 10th.  (11/4/2026)

Wisconsin 1st.  (11/4/2026)

Wisconsin 3rd.  (11/4/2026)