Flip or no flip: Illinois' 6th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Quite the flip!  A blue wave washes over the western suburbs of Chicagoland.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Editorial: Was Trump the undoing of Roskam and Hultgren?  (Chicago Tribune, 11/7/2018)

There could be many explanations for Roskam’s and Hultgren’s defeats. The winners ran well-funded races. Population shifts in the collar counties have brought more Democratic voters to once comfortably Republican districts. But the unpopularity of President Donald Trump among many suburban voters might have been the biggest factor.

The historically conservative Tribune editorial board does not sound particularly happy with these two outcomes.  They endorsed Roskam


Original 9/1/2018 post, "llinois' 6th congressional district is #10 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements",. starts  here.

Republican Peter Roskam is running for a 7th term.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Not Trump country
Trump received 43.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 53.3% for Romney in 2012 and 47.3% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 50.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 45.1% for Obama in 2012 and 51.3% for Obama in 2008. 

The art of the Illinois gerrymander

Source:  govtrack

Related reading:

Suburban voters angry with Trump threaten GOP control of the U.S. House.  (Chicago Tribune, 3/27/2018)

She is not alone. In Illinois' 6th Congressional District, 62,990 people voted Democratic last week for seven candidates, up from just 8,615 in the 2014 primary. In a district that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, a warning is being sent in letters as big and bold as any that has hung on the outside of a Trump building.  

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
there John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)