Monday, November 19, 2018

Flip or no flip: New Jersey's 7th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Leonard Lance is denied a 6th term in Congress by a nearly 16 percenteage point swing in the vote.  Way to go, NJ7!

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Well, at least they were on the right path.  (Pollsters and the nicht zu Hause factor.)

Original 2/14/2018 post, "New Jersey's 7th congressional district is flippable, and Leonard Lance knows it", starts here.

Rep. Leonard Lance was first elected to Congress in November 2008.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
This district has been reliably Republican for decades, but with Clinton winning it in 2016, Democrats think they can flip it.  Seven Democrats -- including former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Tom Malinowski, who outraised the incumbent by an almost 2-to-1 margin in the last 3 months of 2017 -- are running. 
Trump received 47.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 52.5% for Romney in 2012 and 51.6% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 48.6% of the vote in 2016 compared to 46.3% for Obama in 2012 and 47.2% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other Leonard Lance posts:
Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Leonard Lance.  (10/20/2017)
No friend to the environment.  (2/19/2015)

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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