Once again, Paul Ryan is unable to save the day. Republican Jeff Denham is denied a 4th term, as venture capitalist Josh Harder wins by 2.6 percentage points, allowing Democrats to reclaim a seat they last held in 2012.
Two polls gave Harder a 2.8 point advantage. Definitely close enough to 'bingo' in politics.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Trump received 45.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.0% for Romney in 2012 and 47.0% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 48.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.6% for Obama in 2012 and 50.0% for Obama in 2008.
GOP Rep. Jeff Denham loses heated race for Central Valley 10th District to Democrat Josh Harder. (Los Angeles Times, 11/13/2018)
The seat was one of seven in California heavily targeted by national Democrats after the election of President Trump. Denham, 51, had previously beaten the odds in a district carried by Hillary Clinton and President Obama in the last two presidential elections.
Original 10/9/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Jeff Denham (R-California)", starts here.
Republican Jeff Denham was first elected to Congress in 2012, winning the seat by a margin of 5.4 percentage points, which he more than doubled in his 2014 re-election. In a 2016 rematch, his Democratic opponent Michael Eggman cut the margin to 3.4 percentage points.
Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push. (USA Today, 10/6/2017)
Republicans are afraid, very afraid. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (11/28/2018 election update)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (11/28/2018 election update)