Sunday, December 2, 2018

Flip or no flip: Arizona 2nd congressional district UPDATE

As it turned out, Republican Martha McSally decided to run for an open U.S. Senate seat, so Paul Ryan was unable to save the day for her.  McSally went on to lose to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.  To add insult to injury, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Republican Lea Marquez Peterson in the 2nd CD.  So yeah...


Source:  Ballotpedia

Just one poll on which to report.  And it was within the margin of error.
Source:  Ballotpedia

Source:  Ballotpedia 

G.O.P. Squirms as Trump Veers Off Script With Abuse Remarks.  (The New York Times, 2/10/2018)
Far less visible are Republican lawmakers such as Representative Mimi Walters of California, who is facing a difficult campaign in an Orange County district where lobbing rhetorical bombs at the F.B.I. will do little with her centrist constituents but drawing attention to Disney’s bonuses could bear fruit. 

Not Trump country
Trump received 44.7% of the vote in 2016 compared to 49.9 for Romney in 2012 and 49.8% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 49.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 48.4% for Obama in 2012 and 48.9% for Obama in 2008. 

Original 10/8/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Martha McSally ", starts here.

Arizona's 2nd congressional district was redrawn during the redistricting process that took place after the 2010 census.  As a result of a 24.6% increase in population from 2000 to 2010, Arizona gained 1 congressional seat.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)
Republicans are afraid, very afraidThe Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Martha McSally lost the 2012 election by 0.8 percentage points, won in 2014 by 0.1 percentage point, and was re-elected in 2016 by a comfortable double-digit margin.

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Open seat.  Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (12/2/2018 election update)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 39th.  (11/30/2018 election update)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (12/1/2018 election update)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (11/9/2018 election update)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (11/28/2018 election update)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (11/28/2018 election update)

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