Friday, November 9, 2018

Flip or no flip. Florida 27th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Former UW-Madison Chancellor Donna Shalala goes to Washington.

Source:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Shalala rode anti-Trump sentiment to take a congressional seat away from the GOP.  (Miami Herald, 11/6/2018)
Shalala’s victory over Republican Maria Elvira Salazar in the blue-leaning Miami-area congressional district that Democrats hoped to flip in a bid to seize control of the U.S. House was due in large part to Democratic fury with the president. Voters and political observers say Shalala, who enjoyed huge name recognition after a mostly successful stint as president of the University of Miami, ran a lackluster campaign.

Original 8/31/2018 post, "Florida's 27th congressional district is #7 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreement", starts here.

Open seat.  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is not running for re-election.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

In the Democratic primary, Donna Shalala, former UW-Madison chancellor from 1988 to 1993, won a 4-way primary with 31.9% of the vote.  (Total votes = 36.426)

In the Republican primary,  Maria Elvira Salazar won 9-way primary with 49.5% of the vote.  (Total votes = 37.955)

Trump received 38.9% of the vote in 2016 compared to 46.3% for Romney in 2012 and 49.3% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 58.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 53.0% for Obama in 2012 and 50.1% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (9/2/2018)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (10/16/2017)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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