Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Flip or no flip: Virginia 7th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Tea Party darling and Freedom Caucus crazy David Brat didn't realize what a short shelf life he had on the political scene.  Welcome to Congress, Abigail Spanberger.

Source:  Ballotpedia

A toss-up race throughout the fall.

Original 9/2/2018 post, "Virginia 7th congressional district is #24 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements", starts here.

David Brat, who shocked the GOP establishment by defeating then House majority leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary, is running for a third full term.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Not hardcore Trump county.  Both Romney and McCain received a higher percentage of the total vote.
Trump received 50.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 54.6% for Romney in 2012 and 54.3% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 44.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 44.1% for Obama in 2012 and 44.9% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Related reading:
Voters may have an unwelcome surprise waiting for Dave Brat.  (Washington Post, 3/8/2018)
It’s when the poll takes us to individual congressional districts that the numbers get really interesting. When asked which party’s candidates they would vote for were the election held today, voters picked a generic Democrat in nine of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts. Only Republican Reps. Tom Garrett in the 5th and Morgan Griffith in the 9th have an advantage.
And the disgraced Tom Garrett is not on the ballot this fall.

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (11/28/2018 election update)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (11/28/2018 election update)

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