Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Flip or no flip: Michigan's 8th congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  A 20.6 percentage-point flip:  Bishop's 16.8 margin of victory in 2016 + his 3.8 margin of defeat in 2018.  

Apparently, the nut had a soft shell.  

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

It looks as though Elissa Slotkin had the Big Mo going into the final days of the campaign.  One pollster clearly missed the target and lacked insight.

Elissa Slotkin wins Michigan Congress seat, Mike Bishop concedes. (Detroit Free Press, 11/7/2018)
In an upset that bolsters Democratic control in the U.S. House, Elissa Slotkin, a former Defense Department official and intelligence officer, defeated U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop, R-Rochester, early Wednesday in a district that previously had been considered safe ground for his party. 

Original 2/12/2018 post, "Michigan's 8th congressional district is flippable, and Mike Bishop knows it", starts here.

Rep. Mike Bishop is serving his second term.  Admittedly, a tougher nut to crack than the Iowa 1st CD.

Source:  Ballotpedia (2010, 2012; 2014, 2016)

Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
In Michigan’s 8th district outside Detroit, where Trump won with 51% to 44% for Clinton, U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop has drawn a Democratic field that includes a former assistant Defense secretary and intelligence officer, Elissa Slotkin, who served Democratic and Republican presidents, did three tours in Iraq and has posted strong fundraising numbers, outraising Bishop in each of the last two quarters.

Trump received 50.6% of the vote in 2016 compared to 51.1% for Romney in 2012 and 46.4% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 43.9% of the vote in 2016 compared to 48.0% for Obama in 2012 and 52.0% for Obama in 2008. 


Related reading:
Trump's approval ratings plummet in Michigan, key state that backed him in 2016.  (Newsweek, 1/24/2018)

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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