A viral flip.
Ms. Davids is also the first lesbian Native American to be elected to the House and part of “a rainbow wave” of L.G.B.T. candidates in this year’s election. She has criticized the Republican tax bill and called for “a true tax cut for the middle class.”
The Emerson and NY Times/Siena were pretty much spot-on, certainly within the margin of error, a very large margin of error in Emerson's case.
Looks like I have to backtrack on my previously expressed doubts about the latter.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Not Trump county; he lost here, whereas Romney did well in 2012.
Trump received 46.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 53.8% for Romney in 2012 and 44.9% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 47.7% of the vote in 2016 compared to 43.8% for Obama in 2012 and 48.8% for Obama in 2008.
Original 10/16/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Kevin Yoder (R-Kansas)", starts here.
Republican Kevin Yoder was first elected to Kansas' 3rd congressional district in 2012. Since his 2012 re-election his percentage of the vote has decreased 17.2 percentage points. The Libertarian candidate in 2016 received 8.1% of the vote.
Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push. (USA Today, 10/6/2017)
Republicans are afraid, very afraid. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (10/16/2017)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (2/12/2018)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (2/12/2018)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (10/17/2017)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (10/18/2017)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (2/14/2018)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th. (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th. (2/12/2018)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (4/15/2018)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (9/2/2018)
West Virginia 3rd. (8/28/2018)