FiveThirtyEight Election Update email, October 11, 2018
West Virginia’s 3rd District doesn’t seem like a district that should be competitive. It should be an easy Republican hold. After all, President Trump won the 3rd District, anchored by Huntington, by 49 percentage points, and the district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean1 is R+37, meaning it is 37 points more Republican than the country as a whole. In fact, the West Virginia 3rd is one of the 50 most GOP-leaning seats in the country, according to our calculations. Yet the election prognosticators have tagged the race as “Lean Republican” or even a “Toss-up,” and nonpartisan polls have found mixed results since the May primary.
Original 8/28/2018 post starts here.
Open seat. Current rep Evan Jenkins is running for seat on West Virginia Supreme Court.
Democrat Nick Rahall held the seat from 1997 to 2012
Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree. (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)
Second on the list is West Virginia’s 3rd District, where, yet again, the experts give the Democrat, Richard Ojeda, a much better chance than our model does. The 3rd is extremely conservative on the presidential level (Trump won it 73-23), and its (departing) Republican representative won re-election by 44 points in 2016, leading our model to view its “fundamentals” as overwhelmingly Republican. But the handicappers have a good argument too: This coal-country district is ancestrally Democratic and still willing to back a certain brand of West Virginia Democrat.
Trump received 72.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 65.0% for Romney in 2012 and 55.7% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 23.3% of the vote in 2016 compared to 32.8% for Obama in 2012 and 42.3% for Obama in 2008.
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (10/11/2017)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (9/1/2018)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (4/12/2018)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (10/13/2017)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (10/14/2017)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (9/1/2018)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (10/15/2017)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (2/12/2018)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (9/2/2018)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (10/16/2017)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (2/12/2018)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (2/12/2018)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (7/18/2018)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (10/17/2017)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (10/18/2017)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (2/14/2018)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th. (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th. (2/12/2018)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (4/15/2018)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (9/2/2018)
West Virginia 3rd. (10/11/2018 update)