Monday, November 12, 2018

Flip or no flip: Kentucky 6th congressional district UPDATE

No flip.  But Democrat Amy McGrath gave the GOP incumbent Andy Barr a run for his money.  She cut his 2016 margin of victory by 19 percentage points.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

The second NY Times/Siena poll had the candidates tied.  Apparently, though, a substantial number of voters didn't make a decision until Election Day.

Original 2/12/2018 post, "Kentucky's 6th congressional district is flippable, and Andy Barr knows it", starts here.

Rep. Andy Barr is serving his third term, having defeated the 4-term Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler in 2012.  

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
In Kentucky’s 6th district, where Trump won by 16 points, U.S. Rep. Andy Barr faces a Democratic field that currently includes the mayor of Lexington, a sitting state senator and a retired U.S. Marine lieutenant colonel and pilot, Amy McGrath, whose initial campaign video went viral as she walked down a runway with jets lined up behind her, telling the camera, “Some are telling me a Democrat can’t win that battle in Kentucky. We’ll see about that.” Local political experts believe Barr is in trouble.

Lexington keeps the 6th from being a blindingly bright red.
Trump received 54.7% of the vote in 2016 compared to 55.8% for Romney in 2012 and 53.7% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 39.4% of the vote in 2016 compared to 42.2% for Obama in 2012 and 44.8% for Obama in 2008. 


Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (2/12/2018)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (2/12/2018)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (10/12/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

Other Barr posts:
Hal Rogers, Andy Barr, Evan Jenkins have a coal-fired vision for America.  (12/9/2015)
Meet the members of the Republican Study Committee.  (7/13/2015)
No friend to the environment.  (1/14/2015)

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