Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Based on these numbers, Donald Trump should focus his campaign energy on Ozaukee County

 
Election results:  Wikipedia 
3rd party votes:  19.2% in 1992, 9.3% in 1996. 7.2% in  2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 7.3% of the vote in 1968)
Headline:  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 9/30/2024
This was the scene in Waukesha County, where as recently as the 2000s and 2010s Republicans won statewide elections in Wisconsin in part by amassing lopsided majorities in the "crucial" county that could counter Democrats running up the score in liberal Dane and Milwaukee counties. 
Now, not only are Democrats gaining more and more votes in Dane County — the fastest-growing county in the state — they're cutting into the margins in Waukesha County, making it more competitive and upending the political calculus in Wisconsin.

Here's how it has played out recently.

In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won Ozaukee County by a wide margin -- 30.3 percentage points.  He received 36,077 votes.

In 2016, Republican Donald Trump won Ozaukee County by 18.8 percentage points.  He received 30,464 votes --  fewer than Romney, a drop of nearly 16%.

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump won Ozaukee County by 12.1 percentage points, a 60% drop in margin of victory compared to 2012.    He received 33,912 votes, an increase of 3,448 over his 2016 tally.  

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden received 26,517 votes -- 6,347 more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 31%.

The most instructive demographic:  education level

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 49.8% - Ozaukee County
  • 32.0% - Wisconsin
  • 34.3% - U.S.




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