Thursday, November 5, 2026

2026 midterms: South Texas voters move on from a toxic Trump and give James Talarico a big boost in his Senate victory

 
Top headline:  Politico
Maps:  New York Times (2024, 2026)
Bottom headline:  ABC13 Houston

From post-election AP report:
The AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of more than 5,000 Texas Senate voters, found that Talarico built a diverse coalition — winning most young voters and Hispanic voters in the state. Both groups were about evenly split between Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to AP VoteCast. 
This year about three-quarters of voters under 30 went for Talarico, as did roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters. 
Talarico won about two-thirds of moderates — who make up about 4 in 10 Senate voters overall in Texas — as well as most independents. Even about 1 in 10 Republicans voted for Talarico, while vanishingly few Democrats did the same for Paxton.  [emphasis added]

Here is the cause of the Texas GOP freakout early this year:  a 34-percentage-point flip of a red State Senate seat.  It was a very accurate foreshadowing of things to come.

Election results:  Ballotpedia
Headline:  The Texas Tribune, 1/30/2026
Screengrab:  Retiring Guy's Digest, 2/1/2026


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