Saturday, November 7, 2026

Quantis Insights, your plates of crow are ready!

 
Fantasy poll results:  Quantis Insights
Actual results:  New York Times

Here's how Quantis explains its findings:
Five days before Election Day, Ken Paxton holds a one-point lead in the Texas Senate race and Greg Abbott leads by five for Governor. 
Our October 26 to 28 survey of 1,221 likely voters has Paxton at 48.7 percent and James Talarico at 47.6. Ted Brown, the Libertarian, takes 1.4 and 2.2 percent are undecided. The margin of error on the difference between two candidates runs about ±6.4, so Paxton's edge is within it, but the direction has been consistent: he led our early October survey too, and the lead has grown slightly since. 
Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa 50.7 to 45.8, with Pat Dixon at 1.2 and 2.3 percent undecided. A 4.9-point lead is also inside the margin on a difference. Abbott is the only candidate on either ballot above 50. 
There is not much left to allocate. We pushed the 27 undecided Senate respondents to lean and they split almost evenly: nine Talarico, eight Paxton, ten still undecided. The combined ballot is 49.4 to 48.4, Paxton by one. On the Governor side the 28 undecideds broke ten Abbott to six Hinojosa, which widens that race to 51.6 to 46.3.

Even a near-trillionaire like Elon Musk can't buy an election (Texas Ken Paxton edition).  (11/6/2026)
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)