Map: Climate Impact Lab
Headline: Smithsonian, 9/24/2026
Sara Hashemi reports:
The estimate, described in a report released in September by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, found that people living in the Global South will be hardest hit. Although the work has not been peer-reviewed, the authors say their findings are urgent enough to publicize prior to formal publication. They plan to submit it to a scientific journal, and in the meantime, they hope that it can guide humanitarian and government decisions in the coming months to avoid some of the predicted deaths.
“We’re hoping this information is actionable, that decisions can be made to move resources ahead of time,” says Emily Grover-Kopec, a director at the research organization Rhodium Group who worked on the report, to Michael Le Page at New Scientist. That could involve the implementation of heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations and cooling and hydration centers.
The projection is based on the Climate Impact Lab’s previous research looking at the relationships between temperature and additional heat deaths in more than 24,000 regions worldwide. The connections were then applied to the temperature anomalies expected to be brought on by the current El Niño climate swing, which began in June and will extend through February. Since it started, the team estimates excess heat has caused more than 200,000 deaths.
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