In the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are seriously engaged

 

Graph and headline:  The Downballot, 9/22/2026

Daniel Donner reports:

Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November? 

It turns out the answer is very much yes. 

In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.

Look what happened in Wisconsin.

In the 85th Assembly District, Democratic challenger John Kroll received 5,811 out of 5,192 cast running unopposed in his primary election.  Five-term GOP incumbent Patrick Snyder received 5,188 out of 5,206 cast in his primary election.

Running for an open seat in the 82nd Assembly District, long-held by a GOP legislator, Democratic candidate Rico Camacho received 5,164 out of 5,823 cast running unopposed in his primary election.  GOP candidate Bryson Reyes received 4,605 out of 4,618 cast in his primary election.