With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Vermont edition)

Sources:   New York Times, Twitter

So, yeah, he called the race correctly, but......

Trafalgar had Welch up by just 6.5 percentage points.  He won the election by crushing 40.4 percentage points.

What's the 'squishy factor in determining a pollster rating?

Screenshot and headline:  Slate, 1/10/2022 (screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)

Poll rating: FiveThirtyEight (green box added)

@David Weigel