Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Misadventures in polling (2022 elections): Way off the mark in Michigan

 
Real Clear Politics poll average gave Michigan Democratic incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer a slim 1-point advantage over the GOP challenger Tudor Dixon.

Whitmer has been declared the winner, having an 8.1 percentage point advantage with more than 85% of the vote reported.

Poll average:  Real Clear Politics
Actual:  New York Times (>85% of vote)

Trafalgar (cue the eye roll) released a poll two weeks before the election that showed Whitmer and Dixon tied.  The pollster then had a second one ready to go just before the election, with Dixon holding a 1-point lead.

Real Clear Politics (highlight added)

Naturally the media pounced on 'em both.

WJIM, 10/26/2022

New York, 11.1.2022

Mission accomplished!

Other misadventures:
New Hampshire.  (11/9/2022)
Wisconsin.  (11/9/2022)

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