Misadventures in polling (2022 elections): Off the mark in Wisconsin

 

Real Clear Politics poll average gave multimillion GOP challenger Tim Michels a slight advantage over the Democratic incumbent Tony Evers.

Evers has been declared the winner with a 3.2% percentage point advantage.  Quite hefty by recent Wisconsin standards.  In 2018, Evers defeated the Republican incumbent governor Scott Walker by a very thin 1.5 percentage points.  In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Wisconsin by an even thinner 0.67 percentage-point margin.

Poll average:  Real Clear Politics

Actual:  New York Times (>95% of vote)

Of the 7 final polls, 5 gave the advantage to Michels and one ended up in a tie.

Real Clear Politics (above and below)

In other words, Tim Michel's alleged November surge was just a mirage.  (Red box added to chart)

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Other misadventures:

New Hampshire.  (11/9/2022)