Retiring Guy's Digest: Thanks to fair maps in Utah, Democrats will pick up a seat in 2026

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Thanks to fair maps in Utah, Democrats will pick up a seat in 2026

Current U.S. House map: Wikipedia

Court-ordered map and headline: The Downballot, 11/12/2025

David Nir and Jeff Singer report:

A Utah judge selected a new congressional map to replace the state’s GOP gerrymander late on Monday night, all but guaranteeing that Democrats will pick up a seat in next year’s midterms. Republicans have vowed to appeal, but their prospects are dim.

In an 89-page ruling, Judge Dianna Gibson of the Third District Court in Salt Lake City rejected a Republican-drawn map passed by lawmakers last month. She concluded that the map violated anti-gerrymandering rules adopted by voters at the ballot box in 2018 and instead picked a plan proposed by plaintiffs. Gibson, who was appointed to the bench by former Republican Gov. Gary Herbert, previously struck down the state’s prior map in August on the same grounds. [emphasis added]

The new plan, known as Map 1, establishes a compact district entirely in Salt Lake County that would be solidly blue in almost any election. The state’s three other districts would remain safely red.

The population of the Salt Lake City-Provo-Ogden Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is 2,701,129, which is nearly 83% of Utah's total population.

The population of the Salt Lake City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which leans blue, is 1,257,936, which is 38% of the state's population.

In order to rig the maps in their favor, Utah Republicans used the time-dishonored practice of "cracking". (Recommended reading, specifically the "There are multiple ways to gerrymander" section.)

Utah's court-order 1st congressional district will be solidly blue.