Trump's baby bump in the polls is already gone

Compared to Dubya's immediate post-9/11 polls, it was hardly worth noting.

The New York Times, 3/27/2020

Less than 2 weeks later, the answer -- as you knew it would be -- is a resounding 'no'.

Real Clear Politics, 4/6/2020

Joe Biden surges to big win in Virginia

Source:  Real Clear Politics

How Moderates Split Between Biden, Bloomberg Could Give Sanders An Edge.  (WAMU, 3/2/2020) 

Live by the polls, die by the polls.  In Virginia, Biden is riding high from a resounding win in South Carolina’s primary, while Bloomberg is making his long-awaited entry debut the Democratic nominating contests. 

Polling has shown Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders in the top three in Virginia going into Tuesday’s primary. A mid-February poll from Monmouth University had Bloomberg and Sanders at 22% apiece among likely voters, trailed slightly by Biden at 18%. And a poll last week from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University had Biden at 22%, Sanders at 17% and Bloomberg at 13%.

It's best to look at polling averages and not individual polls, Martin, especially with a presidential campaign in constant flux.  Buttigieg and Klobuchar suspending their campaigns and endorsing Biden had the desired effect.  A poll from mid-February was already a relic at the time you wrote your piece.

Related reading:
How A Moderate Virginia May Boost Bloomberg’s Presidential Prospects.  (WAMU, 2/21/2020_

 Experts and voters alike say money has played a role in Bloomberg's somewhat meteoric rise in the Virginia polls, but so does the commonwealth's status as a moderately blue state.

Martin Austinmuhle makes a living from misreading the Virginia electorate.

Related posts:
South Carolina
Polls underestimate extent of Joe Biden's surge in South Carolina.  (3/1/2020)

New Hampshire
Misadventures in polling: Ipsos considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)
2020 New Hampshire primary election: Many polls didn't see an Amy Klobuchar surge coming.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Monmouth University considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Morning Consult considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)

Iowa
Point/counterpoint: Iowa caucuses (on the same day in the same newspaper).  (2/10/2020)
From first to worst: Iowa caucuses are the tail that wags the dog.  (2/7/2020)

We don't have a decisive winner in the Iowa caucuses, but Joe Biden is the clear loser.  (2/7/2020)
What 'earnest participation in democracy'?  (2/6/2020)
Dear Troy Price, Does not compute. Best, Retiring Guy.  (2/5/2020)
The big waste of money otherwise known as ad buying for the 2020 Iowa caucuses. (2/5/2020)
With the Iowa caucuses, the prognostication and handwringing occur early and often.  (2/4/2020)
The first to worst in the nation Iowa caucuses.  (2/4/2020)
Remember. Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus in 2012.  (2/3/2020)

Polls underestimate extent of Joe Biden's surge in South Carolina

Sources:  Real Clear Politics, The New York Times

Polling expert sees possible 'late surge' for Biden in South Carolina from Steyer voters.  (The Hill, 2/25/2020)

Biden leads among Steyer voters’ second choice candidate at 40 percent, with Sanders earning 30 percent of the second choice pick, and the rest of voters are “scattered” among the other candidates, Kerr said. 

“So if we see a late surge here for Joe Biden, that’s probably gonna get taken out of a chunk out of Tom Steyer voters whose support may be a little bit weaker,” he said.

Then there are these takes.

National Interest, 2/26/2020

There are bad polls, and then there are incredibly bad polls.  It was inconceivable back then, but there is a chance today that the veep may actually lose it. NBC News and Marist released a poll on Tuesday, February 25, showing Biden up by only 4 points [emphasis added] against Bernie Sanders, well within the margin of error. The poll was horrible news for Biden, whose entire presidential campaign rests on a win in South Carolina this Saturday.  Biden beat Sanders by almost 30 percentage points.

Politico, 2/28/2020

Hours before South Carolina’s polls open, Bernie Sanders said at a breakfast Friday that he has “a shot to win this” after beginning the primary 30 percentage points behind Joe Biden.

Time, 2/29/2020

“The main difference between last time and this time is time,” former Ohio State Sen. NinaTurner tells me. “I can 100% guarantee we are going to do much better than in 2016, and I do believe we have a shot to win in this state.”

The crown goes to this gem.

Greenville News, 2/28/2020

The momentum model, which also takes into account the results from the Nevada caucuses last Saturday, found that Sanders will win South Carolina handily, with 28.4% of the vote share. Biden is projected to finish in second place with 17.5% of the vote. [emphasis added]

Misadventures in polling: Ipsos considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll

Sources:  Real Clear Politics, Ipsos

Our Final Forecast For The New Hampshire Primary (2/11/2020).

Once again, taking it all at face value.  On Monday evening, Reuters/Ipsos found Sanders leading Biden 20 percent to 17 percent, with Bloomberg close behind at 15 percent, Warren at 11 percent and Buttigieg at 8 percent. This marked a reversal from their last survey before Iowa, which had Biden ahead of Sanders, 22 percent to 19 percent. But once we adjusted the new post-Iowa survey for house effects — Ipsos hasn’t had great numbers for Biden this cycle, so our model adjusts him upward a little bit in these polls to compensate — our model treated this latest poll as a tie between him and Sanders.

Guess we can discount anything Ipsos puts out for the time being.

Related posts:
2020 New Hampshire primary election: Many polls didn't see an Amy Klobuchar surge coming.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Monmouth University considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Morning Consult considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)

Misadventures in polling: Morning Consult considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll

Sources:  Real Clear Politics, Morning Consult

Our Final Forecast For The New Hampshire Primary (2/11/2020).

Taking it all at face value.  Morning Consult’s latest national poll also found Sanders up, 25 to 22 percent, over Biden. Bloomberg, meanwhile, came in third at 17 percent while Buttigieg and Warren were tied at 11 percent. This was also a switch from Morning Consult’s last poll before Iowa, which had Biden ahead of Sanders, 28 percent to 24 percent.

Not a feather in Morning Consult's cap.

Related posts:
2020 New Hampshire primary election: Many polls didn't see an Amy Klobuchar surge coming.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Monmouth University considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)

Misadventures in polling: Monmouth University considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll

Sources:  Real Clear Politics, Monmouth

I guess we can toss this headline, as well as the poll itself, into the trash.

The FiveThirtyEight embarrasses itself with this gushing.

Our Final Forecast For The New Hampshire Primary (2/11/2020).

And lastly, that Monmouth poll had the best news for Sanders as it found him up 10 points over Biden, 26 percent to 16 percent. Buttigieg and Warren were tied for third at 13 percent each, and Bloomberg was in fourth at 11 percent. And because Monmouth doesn’t have much of a house effect for any of the candidates, our model took this new survey pretty much at face value, making it a very nice poll for Sanders.  [emphasis added]

Up 10 points?  Yeah, over third-place Amy Klobuchar.   With some votes yet to be tallied, Sanders is a mere 1.3 percentage points ahead of Buttigieg.

This poll may not be an epic fail by Monmouth, but it's certainly an embarrassment to them.

Related post:
2020 New Hampshire primary election: Many polls didn't see an Amy Klobuchar surge coming.  (2/12/2020)

Dear David Brooks, Better to use polling averages rather than cherrypick individual polls. Best, Retiring Guy

How Trump Wins Again by David Brooks. (The New York Times, 2/6/2020)

First of all, Speaker Pelois formally announced an impeachment inquiry on September 24, 2019.

Source: Key Dates in the Impeachment Inquiry Into President Trump

(The New York Times, 2/5/2020) 

Secondly, Trump's average approval rating has hardly budged since September 24, 2019.

Source:  Real Clear Politics (red arrow added)

GET ME REWRITE: Women voters barricade Trump's path to a second term

Women breaking away from President Trump, could be deciding factor in 2020 presidential race.  (Cleveland.com, 1/22/2020)

In the Great Lakes states, more women voters said they would support the Democratic Party’s yet unnamed candidate over Trump if the election were held today. There was a clear gender divide in the results:

Related reading:
Poll: Michigan women unlikely to support Trump in 2020.  (mlive, 1/22/2020) 

Results from an early election-year poll of likely voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio found Trump may face an uphill climb to win a majority of voters in these states again, especially women.

Exclusive poll: Women lock in on 2020.  (Axios, 1/22/2020)

The big picture: Pollsters have tracked a gender gap, in which larger shares of women than men have identified as Democrats, since the early 1980s. And more women than men have voted in every presidential election since 1980. But the 2016 elections sparked a new moment for women in politics, with more voting and running for office than in previous cycles.

Race and power offered as a distraction from media circle jerk

NPR, 12/5/2019

Reporting and polling have shown that Democratic voters are preoccupied with finding the candidate best positioned to beat Trump. Biden and Sanders both seem to do well in hypothetical head-to-head matchups with the president.

And who does much of the polling?

Source:  Real Clear Politics

The organizations that report on it.

Further down the list, you'll find ABC/Washington Post, Fox News, NBC/Wall Street Journal, USA Today, CBS News.

Related post:

#DemsSoWhite? Let's look at the big picture.  (12/5/2019)

If the latest Marquette poll can be believed, lots of older Millennials and younger Gen Xers in Wisconsin are running into the arms of Donald Trump

The good stuff is in the crosstabs.

In the case of the 30-44 age group....

They favored Biden 53% to 44% over Trump in October and Trump 47% to 42% over Biden in November, a shift of 14 percentage points.  Advantage: Trump.

They favored Sanders 49% to 42% over Trump in October and Trump 50% to 42% over Sanders in November, a shift of 15 percentage points.  Advantage: Trump.

They favored Warren 47% to 42% over Trump in October and Trump 51% to 41% in November, a shift of 15 percentage points.  Advantage: Trump.

They favored Trump 44% to 43% over Buttigieg in October and Trump 51% to 34% over Buttigieg in November, a shift of 16 percentage points. Advantage: Trump.

Wild stuff.....and be to taken with

Related posts:
October and November Marquette polls highlight respondents' disconnect between 'the President' and 'Trump'. (11/20/2019)
Comparing the October and November Marquette polls: There's definitely something screwy going on.  (11/20/2019)
In Wisconsin, it appears that Gen X is leading the parade to keep Trump afloat.  (11/20/2019)

GET ME REWRITE: Support for Trump among GOP voters erodes in Iowa

There's two sides to every story.

Des Moines Register, 11/18/2019

"A majority of every demographic group say they will definitely vote to re-elect the president, with the exception of moderates (47%)," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. "All other groups stand with President Trump with strong majorities, not surprising given it is 76% overall."  [emphasis added]

Iowa election results 2016

His biggest admirers: GOP women are in a world of their own

Support for Trump impeachment inquiry rises, new poll shows.  (PBS, 10/10/2019)

More than half of Americans say they support the impeachment inquiry launched by the House of Representatives against President Donald Trump. And nearly as many are ready to see him impeached and removed from office, according to a new poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist.

In The Seekers' second of four appearances on the Billboard Hot 100, "A World of our Own" debuted at for the week ending May 29, 1965.  It spent 10 weeks on the chart, peaking at #19 for 2 weeks.  



The 'B' side of the single?  "Sinner Man".

Looks like the latest Marquette poll skews a bit to the right

Source:  Marquette University Law School poll

Related posts:
Trump's fans and detractors as determined by latest Marquette poll.  (9/5/2019)
Marquette poll: On average, 84% of respondents are 'absolutely certain' they will vote in November 2020.  (9/5/2019)

UPDATE: Another Scott Fitzgerald and Robin Vos reality check from the Marquette Law School pollsters

Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald was first elected to the Wisconsin State Senate in 1994.  He is currently serving his 7th 4-year term.  

August 25-29, 2019

Source:  Marquette Law School poll

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos was first elected to the Wisconsin State Assembly in 2004.  He is currently serving his 8th 2-year term.

August 25-29, 2019

All polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but this latest one from Marquette deserves more than a few.

OK, it was conducted in late summer, but why the uptick in clueless respondents in Madison and the Milwaukee suburbs when asked about Scott Fitzgerald?

As for Robin Vos, the latest Marquette poll shows something of a collective brain fart in Milwaukee and a political epiphany in the Fox Valley.

Related reading:
Half the state hasn't heard of the most powerful lawmakers in Wisconsin, new poll finds.  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 9/4/2019)

Marquette University Law School pollsters dropped a reality check on Wisconsin's political journalists Wednesday: Half the state might not be reading coverage of the state Capitol. New Marquette polling shows about 50% of registered voters in Wisconsin haven't heard of the most powerful lawmakers in the state Legislature — the two men who control which bills will be taken up and who can stop others in their tracks

Actually, it's the third time this year, a Marquette poll has dropped this reality check.


April 11, 2019 update starts here.

April 3-7, 2019

Source:  Marquette Law School poll

Not much has changed overall since.....

January 16-20, 2019

Source:  Marquette Law School poll 

April 3-7, 2019

His Vosness is breaking through more than Fitz.

January 16-20, 2019

Related reading:
Is Statehouse News Actually Declining, or Just Different?  (Governing, December 2018)

If you look strictly at numbers, it’s hard to escape the notion that state-level journalism is in dire straits these days. To make the most obvious point, there aren’t as many news outlets as there were when the century began. Penelope Muse Abernathy, a journalism professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, reported earlier this year that more than 1,800 newspapers have merged or folded in America since 2004. Roughly 300 weeklies have started up in the same period, but that’s still a net decline of 1,500. Smaller rural communities have suffered the most; according to Abernathy, nearly 200 counties, home to more than 3 million people, have no daily or weekly newspaper. 

Other 1/16-20/2019 Marquette poll posts:
OK, folks, raise your hand if you lied on the first response.  (1/24/2019)
Marquette Law School poll: On the issues and those who legislate them.  (1/24/2019)
Except for impeachment, Trump underwater in Marquette poll questions.  (1/24/2019)
The demographics of Wisconsin supporters and detractors of Donald Trump's border wall.  (1/25/2019)

Trump's fans and detractors as determined by latest Marquette poll

Source:  Marquette University Law School poll (August 25-29,2019)

Related posts:
Poll UPDATE: Donald Trump's best cross-tabs in latest NPR/Marist poll.  (9/13/2018)

Other post based on latest Marquette poll:
On average, 84% of respondents are 'absolutely certain' they will vote in November 2020.  (9/4/2019)

GET ME REWRITE: Our whining president seethes over latest Fox News poll

Trump losing his mind over another bad Fox News poll.  (Vanity Fair, 8/19/2019)

Worst polls have always been from Fox?

Let's take a look at 2019 to date.

January.  Not true.  Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post, and CBS News are much worse.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

February.  Not true.  Both Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov has percentage-point difference more than twice that of Fox News.

March.  Definitely not true.  Quinnipiac and Reuters/Ipsos polls make the Fox News poll look like a love fest. 

April.  Not true.  Again, Fox News is not even close to being the worst poll for Trump.

May.  Not true.  Fox News is tied for 2nd in "least unfavorable poll" category.

June.  Not true.  It appears that the Reuters/Ipsos polls are toughest on Trump.

July.  Most definitely not true.  Fox News trends toward Rasmussen territory.

August.  Not true.  If you eliminate the phony Rasmussen poll, the rest of them demonstrate an unusual level of consistency.