According to Real Clear Polling averages for the final few weeks of the campaign for Texas governor, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott held a 2.3 percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
The election day reality: Hinojosa kicked Abbot's butt by 7.1 percentage points.
That's a 9.4 percentage-point swing-and-a-miss.
Headline: Washington Post, 10/8/2026
Poll averages and election results: Real Clear Polling
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