Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Joe Biden surges to big win in Virginia



How Moderates Split Between Biden, Bloomberg Could Give Sanders An Edge.  (WAMU, 3/2/2020) 
Live by the polls, die by the polls.  In Virginia, Biden is riding high from a resounding win in South Carolina’s primary, while Bloomberg is making his long-awaited entry debut the Democratic nominating contests. 
Polling has shown Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders in the top three in Virginia going into Tuesday’s primary. A mid-February poll from Monmouth University had Bloomberg and Sanders at 22% apiece among likely voters, trailed slightly by Biden at 18%. And a poll last week from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University had Biden at 22%, Sanders at 17% and Bloomberg at 13%.

It's best to look at polling averages and not individual polls, Martin, especially with a presidential campaign in constant flux.  Buttigieg and Klobuchar suspending their campaigns and endorsing Biden had the desired effect.  A poll from mid-February was already a relic at the time you wrote your piece.




Related reading:
How A Moderate Virginia May Boost Bloomberg’s Presidential Prospects.  (WAMU, 2/21/2020_
 Experts and voters alike say money has played a role in Bloomberg's somewhat meteoric rise in the Virginia polls, but so does the commonwealth's status as a moderately blue state.
Martin Austinmuhle makes a living from misreading the Virginia electorate.

Related posts:
South Carolina
Polls underestimate extent of Joe Biden's surge in South Carolina.  (3/1/2020)

New Hampshire
Misadventures in polling: Ipsos considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)
2020 New Hampshire primary election: Many polls didn't see an Amy Klobuchar surge coming.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Monmouth University considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Morning Consult considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll.  (2/12/2020)

Iowa
Point/counterpoint: Iowa caucuses (on the same day in the same newspaper).  (2/10/2020)
From first to worst: Iowa caucuses are the tail that wags the dog.  (2/7/2020)

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