Sunday, November 3, 2024

Will 2024 be the first year since 1936 when Boise and Ada County Idaho vote blue in a presidential election?


In 1984, Ronald Reagan won Ada County by 46.2 percentage points.

In 2020, Donald Trump won the county by just 3.9 percentage points.

Will the county flip from Red to Blue in 2024?  It's possible, but if not, it'll be very close.

Wikipedia (election results and population)
3rd party votes:  26.5% in 1992, 11% in 1996, 13.4% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace 
received 12.9% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 36,947 more votes than he did in 2016, a 40% increase.   Biden received 44,842 more votes than Clinton in 2016, an increase of 60%.

Trump's share of the vote increased by 2.4 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 7.7 percentage points.
Ada County's population has increaseed % since 1980.


Ada County residents have a much higher level of education, on average, than the rest of the state.

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 42.8% - Ada County
  • 30.2% - Idaho
  • 34.3% - U.S.

Other candidates to flip Blue in 2024:
Delaware County, Ohio.  (11/2/2024)
Collin County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
Denton County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)

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