Saturday, November 2, 2024

Carver County, Minnesota: Keep an eye on this southwest suburban area of Minneapolis on Election Day

  
In 1984, Ronald Reason won Carver County by 27.6 percentage points.

In 2020, Donald Trump won the county by just 4.9 percentage points.

Will the county flip from Red to Blue in 2024?

3rd party votes:  30.3% in 1992, 15.0% in 1996. 9.2% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 4.6% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 4,953 more votes than he did in 2016, a 17% increase.   Biden received 9,266 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 43%.

Trump's share of the vote decreased by 0.9 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 7.8 percentage points. 


The county's population has more than tripled since 1980.






With a higher-than average education level, the county isd not fertile ground for MAGA.

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 49.8% - Carver County
  • 38.2% - Minnesota
  • 34.3% - U.S.
% of population 65 and older:
  • 15.2% - Carver County
  • 17,5% - Minnesota
  • 17.7% - U.S.
% of population living in poverty:
  •   4.5% - Carver County
  •   9.3% - Minnesota
  • 11.1% - U.S. 


Other candidates to flip Blue in 2024:

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