Thursday, January 15, 2026

When it comes to the damage done by ICE, the Republican Party is in denial

 
Headline and graph:  Strength in Numbers, 1/15/2025

A certain kind of pundit has been telling Democrats they’re on the wrong side of public opinion on Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Sohrab Ahmari, an editor at the conservative online magazine Unherd, tweeted last week that Democrats are “going all in on a case that’s 70-30 (at best) against” them. 
It turns out that Sohrab has it exactly backwards. New polls released this week show U.S. voters breaking between 60 and 70% against the way ICE is enforcing President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. Polls on things like zip-tying children during raids, detaining U.S. citizens, ICE agents wearing masks, and of course, shooting and killing citizens such as Renee Good show a public that is moving dramatically away from the president. [emphasis added]
The conventional wisdom in Washington throughout most of 2025 was that the president had a large edge on immigration, and that it would be a huge strategic error for Democrats to campaign on the issue. That case was wrong, but perhaps arguable, in March and April 2025 (before the polls had so clearly moved away from the president). But new data proves it is irredeemably flawed.
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