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Weather Forecasts: Just How Reliable Are They? (Minitab)
Do you regularly visit your favorite weather Web site, or check the forecast every morning on your cell phone? Some of us really obsess about the weather. In the United States, we have an entire television channel dedicated to it, and I have friends who pay more attention to this channel than the news, their favorite sports team…perhaps even their spouse!
When you check the weather, you can just get the next-day forecast, or you can look ahead at a 5-day or even a 10-day forecast. But have you ever wondered how truly trustworthy these predictions are? Many people count on these long-range forecasts to accurately predict future weather, but are they really reliable, or are they more like the meteorological equivalent of gazing into a magic crystal ball?
In this article, we will look at temperature data and use various statistical tools to see just how reliable the forecast is.
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