Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Dear Seth, Wishing doesn't make it so. The Florida WTSP poll was an outlier.


Always advisable to take every poll with a grain of salt.

The +45 Clinton/Sanders spread in the WTSP/Mason-Dixon poll is significantly above the average of +28.9.  And if we set aside the ARG poll, the spread of the remaining 8 polls puts them in a fairly snug cluster.

Source:  Real Clear Politics (and below)

More Shocking Upsets in Store for Bernie Sanders?  By Seth Abramson.  (Huffington Post, 3/14/2016)

No, in this case, just more shockingly bad analysis. 
...and while the polling in Florida at first blush seems less favorable -- Sanders has "only" cut 17 points off Clinton's 45-point lead in the last 48 hours...
No, Seth, each poll is simply 'snapshot'.  None of them is indicative of a developing trend.  The most important number to keep in mind is the poll average.

And as it turns out, the Florida poll average wasn't that far off the mark.

Additional source:  CNN 2016 Election Center

Related posts:
While you were sleeping, GOP Presidential candidates pick up a few delegates.  (3/13/2016)
Lone Idaho poll misses Cruz express.  (3/9/3016)
Trump, Clinton win in Mississippi; Rubio in free fall.  (3/9/2016)
Trump wins as expected in Michigan, Sanders scores upset.  (3/9/2016)
Trump, Rubio underperform, Cruz well exceeds expectations in GOP Louisiana primary.  (3/6/2016)
Trump squeaks past Cruz in Kentucky GOP caucuses.  (3/6/2016)
It's a Ted Cruz caucus kinda day: First Kansas, now Maine.  (3/5/2016)
Pollsters didn't have a clue that Cruz would win big in Kansas caucus.  (3/5/2016)
In a Super Tuesday smackdown on Sarah Palin, Alaska voters give Ted Cruz a win in GOP caucus.  (3/2/2016)
Cruz does what he needs to do in Texas, exceeding Super Tuesday expectations.  (3/2/2016)
Super Tuesday in Minnesota: Apparently, there was little to no interest in polling voters.  (3/2/2016)
Cruz gives Trump a Super Tuesday scare in Arkansas.  (3/2/2016)
Super Tuesday brings expected Trump, Clinton wins in Alabama.  (3/2/2016)
No Super Tuesday surprises in Georgia as Trump, Clinton win easily.  (3/2/2016)
It's definitely a Super Tuesday for Bernie Sanders in Vermont.  (3/2/2016)
As expected, Trump and Clinton win in Tennessee on Super Tuesday.  (3/1/2016)
Trump wins big in Massachusetts GOP primary, but overall he gets smoked by Clinton and Sanders.  (3/1/2016)
Cruz surprises in Oklahoma GOP primary; Sanders wins Democratic race.  (3/1/2016)
Clinton, Trump win in Virginia; Rubio finishes a strong 2nd in GOP race.  (3/1/2016)

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