Comparing Wisconsin voter turnout in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections

Part 1 of a series

Overall, the total number of votes cast in the 2016 presidential election dropped by more than 90,000, or 3%, compared to 2012.  There was a significant difference in the drop-off between major parties.

Source:  Wikipedia (2012, 2016)

Third party votes could have cost HIllary Clinton the Presidency.  (Newsweek, 11/9/2016)

In the swing states of Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the votes cast for Johnson similarly exceeded the gap between Trump and Clinton.

In Wisconsin, Gary Johnson received 106,674 votes (3.6%) and Jill Stein received 31,017 votes (just over 1%).

Overall, the total number of Milwaukee County votes cast in the 2016 presidential election dropped by more than 50,000, or 10.5%, compared to 2012, the largest numerical and percentage drop in voting among Wisconsin's 72 counties.  Although smaller in number, Republican voters appear to have been more disaffected, percentage-wise.  By the numbers, Milwaukee County is not Trump's America.

Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It.  (The New York Times, 11/20/2016)

As Democrats pick through the wreckage of the campaign, one lesson is clear: The election was notable as much for the people who did not show up, as for those who did. Nationally, about half of eligible voters did not cast ballots. 

Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nation’s highest rates of voter participation; this year’s 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.

Wisconsin Strict ID Law Discouraged Voters, Study Finds.  (The New York Times, 9/25/2017)

The study reported Monday, by Professor Mayer and a doctoral student in political science, Michael G. DeCrescenzo, concludes that that is largely what occurred in November. Their survey involved 288 registered voters in the state’s two most populous counties who did not cast ballots in the 2016 election. Based on their answers, the study estimated that 11.2 percent of the counties’ 160,000 registered nonvoters were kept from casting ballots by the voter ID law. Of those, they estimated that 6 percent were prevented from voting because they actually did not have an acceptable ID. Most of the remaining registrants possessed acceptable IDs, the study stated, but did not try to vote because they mistakenly believed that they would not be accepted.

Wisconsin could swing the 2020 presidential election.  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 8/2/2019)

Wisconsin has been a top presidential battleground before. It was the closest state in the country in 2004. It was even closer in 2000. And in 2016, it mathematically put Donald Trump over the top in the Electoral College. In all three races, the outcome was decided by less than 1 percentage point. 

But never in modern times has the case for this state’s electoral primacy been so compelling to so many analysts and party strategists so far in advance of the election