Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Bellwether Counties in 2012 Walker Recall Election


 Last night, I followed the recall election results on C-SPAN's Campaign 2012 website.  .I just wasn't in the mood for a lot of chatter.  I also thought it would be instructive to compare the county-by-county recall votes to the 2010 gubernatorial election results.

After studying the early (and complete) returns of three counties -- Door, Trempealeau, and Fond du Lac --   I became convinced that Walker was going to win, or, to be "reaffirmed", as today's banner headline in the Wisconsin State Journal trumpets.

Door County

Door was one of the first counties to report a final vote tally from all of its precincts.  The numbers were not a comfort for this Tom Barrett voter, especially when compared to the results of the 2010 gubernatorial election.

Barrett's 2012 vote total decreased by 415 compared to 2010.  Walker's increased by 1,466.

Door County Votes for Tom Barrett and Scott Walker
2010 Gubernatorial/2012 Recall Elections

The Percentages


Trempealeau County

Trempealeau County reported its final elections results on the heels of Door County.  Barrett eked out a razor-thin win here in 2010, but Walker picked up major support in 2012.


Trempealeau County Votes for Tom Barrett and Scott Walker
2010 Gubernatorial/2012 Recall Elections

The Percentages


Fond du Lac County

Among Wisconsin's more populated counties, Fond du Lac showed a curious efficiency, or determination (take your pick), to report their votes totals.  The outcome only served to exacerbate the queasy feeling in my stomach.

Fond du County Votes for Tom Barrett and Scott Walker
2010 Gubernatorial/2012 Recall Elections

The Percentages

It's as if nobody budged.

At this point, I asked myself, and my Facebook friends, Anyone else wondering how many people voted not necessarily for Walker but primarily against the recall?

Most instructive response.  Bob said that's what 60% of the exit polls revealed "He didn't do anything illegal; I don't believe in the recall."

Dane County

As for Dane County -- I didn't see the final tally until this morning, after a rough night of semi-sleep -- both Barrett and Walker gained more votes, but it made minimal difference in the percentages.



But I want to conclude this post on a positive note.

Hopeful outcome for the fall 2012 elections.  Barrett ekes out a win in Kenosha County, where he lost to Walker by almost 4 percentage points in 2010.

17-16 Dems?  And some of the overnight gloom was washed away when I saw that John Lehman is back in the State Senate, although the news reports I've read refer to it as some kind of apparition.   (Democrats appear to take Senate.....;Racine County appeared to have ousted....; Control of the state Senate appeared to have been wrested.....)

Let's not let this one get away.

1 comment:

Sharon said...

Please note that we appreciate all the hard work all of you did for this recall effort. Thanks very much for the graft Paul. Great job of doing that. Sad to say,it really says it all. Love you and Jo and know your my role models and are deeply admired. So sorry for our loss but we know this isn't the end. Just the beginning and they will be watched and monitored. Love you, Sharon