Nevada gained a 4th U.S. House seat after the 2010 census, and elections in this district have been a seesaw affair so far. In 2012, Democrat Steven Horsford beat Republican Danny Tarkanian -- who must have a 'loser' tag by now -- by 8 percentage points. Horsford lost his re-election bid to Republican Cresent Hardy by 2.7 points. Hardy then lost his re-election bid to Democrat Ruben Kihuen by 4 percentage points. With this kind of pattern, the NRCC might have stumbled onto a seat where they have a chance.
Clinton won 49.5% of the presidential vote compared to 44.6% for Trump.
Source: Ballotpedia
NRCC Announces Initial Offensive Targets For The 2018 Cycle. (NRCC, 2/8/2017)
Since February 8th, the gap between Trump's approval and disapproval ratings has increased 9.5 percentage points. To the bad.
Source: govtrack
Sources: Census Reporter (NV 4CD; U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts (NV, US)
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