Saturday, March 25, 2023

FiveThirtyEight evaluates the 2022 polling season and downgrades Trafalgar to a 'B' grade for its historically inaccurate and purposefully misleading polls

HeadlineNew York Magazine, 10/14/2022

Top headlineFiveThirtyEight, 3/19/2023
Bottom headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022

From FiveThirtyEight:
Meanwhile, the bottom of the list features quite a few Republican-affiliated pollsters that systematically overestimated the GOP in 2022: RRH Elections, InsiderAdvantage, co/efficient, Moore Information Group.14 But the most famous of these is probably Trafalgar Group, a pollster whose methods are notoriously opaque but that played a significant role in shaping the ultimately untrue narrative that a “red wave” was building with its 37 (!) qualifying pre-election polls. Trafalgar’s polls were quite accurate in 2020, when its Republican-leaning house effects helped it avoid the big polling miss that other firms experienced. As a result, it went into 2022 with an A- pollster rating. But its poor performance last cycle has knocked it down to a B — making it one of two pollsters to fall two notches in our ratings this year.
And they're still at it!  (And here.)

More from Trafalgar's polling fantasyland:
February 2023

January 2023
RULE #1: Never take a Trafalgar poll at face valve (RNC chair election edition).  (1/27)
Day 61 of Robert C. Cahaly's self-imposed exile.  (1/7)
FiveThirtyEight reports Trafalgar poll with a straight face.  (1/6)

December 2022

November 2022
And then there were those Trafalgar fantasy polls.  (11/21)
Since Election Day, we have been listening to 'The Sounds of Silence" by Robert C. Cahaly.  (11/16)
Looking forward to Trafalgar's first fantasy poll of the 2024 GOP presidential campaign shit show.  (11/16)

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