Headline: New York Magazine, 10/14/2022
Top headline: FiveThirtyEight, 3/19/2023
Bottom headline: Slate, 11/10/2022
From FiveThirtyEight:
Meanwhile, the bottom of the list features quite a few Republican-affiliated pollsters that systematically overestimated the GOP in 2022: RRH Elections, InsiderAdvantage, co/efficient, Moore Information Group.14 But the most famous of these is probably Trafalgar Group, a pollster whose methods are notoriously opaque but that played a significant role in shaping the ultimately untrue narrative that a “red wave” was building with its 37 (!) qualifying pre-election polls. Trafalgar’s polls were quite accurate in 2020, when its Republican-leaning house effects helped it avoid the big polling miss that other firms experienced. As a result, it went into 2022 with an A- pollster rating. But its poor performance last cycle has knocked it down to a B — making it one of two pollsters to fall two notches in our ratings this year.And they're still at it! (And here.)
More from Trafalgar's polling fantasyland:
February 2023
January 2023
RULE #1: Never take a Trafalgar poll at face valve (RNC chair election edition). (1/27)RULE #1: Never take a Trafalgar poll at face value (RNC edition). (1/26)
Day 61 of Robert C. Cahaly's self-imposed exile. (1/7)
FiveThirtyEight reports Trafalgar poll with a straight face. (1/6)December 2022
In a year when conservative pollsters tried to drive the election narrative, Politico sez "HOORAY " for polls. (12/31)
Rule #1: Never cite a Trafalgar poll to bolster your argument. (12/24)
Rule #1: Never cite a Trafalgar poll to bolster your argument. (12/24)
November 2022
And then there were those Trafalgar fantasy polls. (11/21)Since Election Day, we have been listening to 'The Sounds of Silence" by Robert C. Cahaly. (11/16)
Looking forward to Trafalgar's first fantasy poll of the 2024 GOP presidential campaign shit show. (11/16)
Governor's race in Arizona. (11/16)
Governor's race in Colorado. (11/16)
Governor's race in New York. (11/15)
Governor's rate in Michigan. (11/11)
Governor's race in Minnesota. (11/16)
Governor's race in Minnesota. (11/16)
Governor's race in Pennsylvania. (11/14)
Governor's race in Wisconsin. (11/14)
Senate race in Arizona. (11/15/)
Senate race in Colorado. (11/14)
Senate race in Nevada. (11/15)
Senate race in New Hampshire. (11/14)
Senate race in Pennsylvania. (11/14)
Senate race in Vermont. (11/11)
Senate race in Washington. (11/11)
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