Wednesday, November 6, 2024

2024 election: Iowa poll gold standard tarnished

 
Top headline:  ABC News, 11/4/2024
NYT screenshot from RG's phone
Bottom headlineDes Moines Register, 11/6/2024

From the Register:
The night was a rare miss for the Iowa Poll, which has long been considered a gold standard. From 2008 through 2020, the poll accurately reflected the winner of the presidential race in Iowa. In 2004, the final Iowa Poll found Democrat John Kerry leading Republican George Bush by 5 percentage points, but Bush went on to win Iowa by less than 1 percentage point.

Say 'hello' to these crazy, mixed-up Missouri voters

 
HeadlinePBS, 11/6/2024

Josh, too, will protect women whether they like or not.
The constitutional amendment also says any governmental interference in reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, is invalid. It also forbids the government from discriminating against using funding programs or activities pertaining to reproductive health care. The amendment also allows for laws that ban abortion after the point of fetal viability, with exceptions to protect the life of a pregnant person. 
When asked for a statement on the amendment, Republican Sen. Josh Hawley’s office pointed to comments the senator, who won another termin the Senate is up for reelection this year, made during a debate in October. 
“I think it’s absolutely vital that we protect our women and children in the state and that’s why I can’t support legislation that would allow sex changes for minors without parental consent,” Hawley said during an exchange on the matter.

Other Josh posts:
Meet Josh Hawley, opportunitst.  3/8/2021
Let's sandwich Josh Hawley between two of the New York Post's greatest hits.  (1/25/2021)

Tarrant County Texas jumps back into red column after flipping for Joe Biden in 2020


Donald Trump received 409,741 votes in 2020 and 425,650 votes in 2024, a 4% increase of 15,909.

Joe Biden received 411,567 votes in 2020, and Kamala Harris received 383,023 votes in 2024, a 7% decrease of 28,544
Note:  2024 vote tallies are preliminary

Almost 839,000 Tarrant County residents (70.75% of eligible voters) cast ballots in the 2020 election. A substantially smaller portion of registered voters went to the polls this time around: according to unofficial tallies — not yet accounting for mail-in ballots — 63.59% of eligible Tarrant voters participated in the election. Overall, roughly 13,000 fewer votes were cast. 

Original post starts here:

In 1984, Ronald Reagan won McHenry County by 34.7 percentage points.

In 2020, Donald Trump lost the county by 0.2 percentage points.

Wikipedia   Election returns and population
3rd party votes:  28% in 1992, 7.5% in 1996. 5.1% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 15.3% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 63,820 more votes than he did in 2016, a 18% increase.   Biden received 123,175 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 43%.

Trump's share of the vote decreased by 2.6 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 6.2 percentage points. 

The population of Tarrant County has nearly doubled since 1980.


  
Source:  U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 33.9% - Tarrant County
  • 32.3% - Texas
  • 34.3% - U.S.
% of population 65 and older:
  • 12.7% - Tarrant County
  • 13.7% - Texas
  • 17.7% - U.S.
% of population living in poverty:
  • 10.6% - Tarrant County
  • 13.7% - Texas
  • 11.1% - U.S



Other counties to take note of on Election Day 2024:
Ada County, Idaho.  (11/6/2024 update)
Hamilton County, Indiana.  (11/6/2024 update)
Kent County, Michigan (11/6/2024 uipdate)
Delaware County, Ohio.  (11/2/2024 update)
Collin County, Texas.  (11/2/2024 update)
Denton County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
Tarrant County, Texas.  (11/5/2024)
Sauk County, Wisconsin.  (11/6/2024)